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There’s definitely an opportunity in this district for Democrats running against Bachmann, who still has relatively low approval ratings. But it appears Tinklenberg might not be the man to do it. Democrats might have missed their opportunity to steal this seat in 2006.

Ohio

House

1st district
Incumbent: Steve Chabot (R)
7th term (52 percent)
Outlook: Tossup

Chabot has withstood more than a few tough challenges over the years in his conservative but urban district. Though state Rep. Steve Driehaus presents a different kind of challenge than the Democrats who came before him, it’s possible Chabot has found a winning formula for keeping his seat.

An aggressive campaigner, Chabot has already gone negative on Driehaus and will likely continue to do so over the next few weeks. Driehaus and national Democrats will try to tie Chabot closely to President Bush. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has targeted the race and already invested funds in the district.

The key for Democrats will be turning out the black vote in Cincinnati, which could be buoyed by the presence of Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) at the top of the ticket. If Driehaus and Democrats continue to nationalize the race, he’ll have a good chance of defeating Chabot in a presidential election year.

2nd district
Incumbent: Jean Schmidt (R)
2nd term (50 percent)
Outlook: Leans Republican

Schmidt might not be the best political candidate, but she has improved significantly since she came to Congress. The verbal gaffes that marked her first two years in Congress have become less frequent. She is also running a more aggressive campaign.

Luckily for Republicans, physician Victoria Wulsin (D) has not improved on her third attempt for the seat. Her best chance was likely in 2006, when Democrats swept the state. This time around, Schmidt will probably be boosted by presidential turnout as well in the generally conservative suburban Cincinnati district.

Even though Wulsin is on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” list, the committee is unlikely to invest as much in this race as some other contests in the Buckeye State.

Expect to see an increasingly negative race, with both candidates attempting to tie each other to their respective national parties. But beyond the negative noise, it’s looking increasingly likely that Schmidt will win her re-election bid.

7th district
Open seat: David Hobson (R) is retiring
Outlook: Likely Republican

This was once thought to be a safe GOP seat, but the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised eyebrows when it added attorney Sharen Neuhardt to its “Red to Blue” list of promising candidates. Neuhardt is in an uphill battle against state Sen. Steve Austria (R), who has very close ties to Hobson and is widely see an his protégé.

Neuhardt will likely make an issue of Austria’s long voting record in the state Capitol. Austria, on the other hand, might try to paint Neuhardt as a liberal lawyer.

If Neuhardt can raise the money, she can probably wage a good campaign for the seat. But there’s no doubt that Austria has the upper hand in this race.

11th district
Open seat: Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D) died on Aug. 20
Outlook: Safe Democratic

Local Democrats nominated a Jones protégé to take her place on the November ballot: Warrensville Heights Mayor Marcia Fudge (D). Cleveland-area party bosses, African-American leaders and suburban mayors chose Fudge in what some local observers described as a complete consensus vote.

The district is safe for Democrats, and Fudge will likely follow in her mentor’s footsteps to the next Congress.

15th district
Open seat: Deborah Pryce (R) is retiring
Outlook: Tossup

For a second cycle in a row, Columbus is battleground zero for targeted Congressional races. Last cycle, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D) lost to Pryce by about 1,000 votes. She’s back again for a second run at the seat.