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Minnesota voters, however, are a discerning bunch who not only boast some of the highest turnout in the country, but also pay close attention to their candidates. That’s both good and bad for Franken, who spent much of this year defending $70,000 in incorrectly paid income taxes and some of his risqué writings from his comedy career.

The state GOP, Coleman and national Republicans won’t be afraid to leave a single Franken script unturned in this campaign. Expect an increasingly negative assault from GOP operatives as they attempt to keep Franken trailing Coleman outside the margin of error in the polls. Democrats, in turn, will try their best to put Coleman and President Bush in the same corner.

But by far the biggest wildcard in this race is former Sen. Dean Barkley (I), who also served as a top aide to Gov. Jesse Ventura (I). Although his anti-war stance will likely steal valuable votes away from Franken, it’s possible he might pull a few disaffected independent voters and Republicans away from Coleman. Either way, Barkley has been polling in the teens in recent weeks, which means he will likely play spoiler for someone on Election Day. Franken may not be able to get to 50 percent, but with Barkley in the race he may not need to in order to win.

House

1st district
Incumbent: Tim Walz (D)
1st term (53 percent)
Outlook: Likely Democratic

Walz appears to be on track to win re-election, but Republicans keep touting physician Brian Davis as a promising candidate. Davis, backed by the state party, defeated a state Senator in the GOP primary 2-1. Davis also has been willing to throw some of his own funds in the race, and Republicans certainly hope he’ll keep doing so through November.

Walz, however, appears to have a solid hold on the district as a freshman. Despite only one term in office, he’s regularly receiving more than 50 percent of the vote in public polls on the race.

3rd district
Open seat: Jim Ramstad (R) is retiring
Outlook: Tossup

Ramstad’s retirement left a golden opportunity open for Democrats to make a pickup in the district west of the Twin Cities. The moderate Ramstad has easily held onto the affluent, suburban seat for more than a decade, but even he acknowledges the district has trended Democratic in recent years.

One of Ramstad’s former aides, state Rep. Erik Paulsen (R), is running to replace the nine-term Member. He acknowledges he is more conservative than Ramstad, but the Congressman fully backs Paulsen and is chairman of his campaign.

Democrats have nominated Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia, a former Republican and attorney, who pulled an upset in the party’s caucus endorsement process over a state Senator. While Madia will be boosted by his party’s national dollars, Paulsen is an effective fundraiser in his own right.

This race will likely be a bellwether for how much the district has changed in recent cycles. Expect Madia to try to present himself in a similar light as Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.): the candidate of change. Paulsen, on the other hand, will attempt to present his legislative experience as a good thing for Congress.

6th district
Incumbent: Michele Bachmann (R)
1st term (50 percent)
Outlook: Likely Republican

Give ’em El ... or not. Once thought to be the only kind of Democrat who could win the conservative district far north of the Twin Cities, former state Transportation Commissioner El Tinklenberg does not appear to be raising money or getting enough traction to give Bachmann a good run. Most recently, Tinklenberg was not included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” list of the top 54 promising challenger or open-seat candidates.

Bachmann, on the other hand, has done a good job staying out of the spotlight in the second half of her first term in Congress. After a first year marked with gaffes, Bachmann has for the most part stayed out of the headlines in 2008, and she made a prime-time speech at the Republican National Convention that was generally well-received.