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Ellsworth continues to be popular in the district that voted for President Bush with 62 percent in 2004. His campaign likely won’t make a lot of noise in the coming month as he’s expected to easily win re-election.

9th district
Incumbent: Baron Hill (D)
1st term (50 percent; previously served three terms)
Outlook: Leans Democratic

Most movie-goers would like to forget they ever saw “Rocky IV.” And now that Hill and former Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) are on their fourth round of running against each other, the rematch is reminiscent of the fourth episode in the famous boxing series: unnecessarily bloody with a stale plotline.

Sodrel does not appear to be getting the traction he received in previous cycles. If he wins, it’s only because he’s carried to victory on the presidential ticket’s coattails. President Bush won the district with 59 percent in 2004 — the only time Sodrel ever won the seat.

The last few weeks of this never- ending Congressional race will likely continue to be very negative, with Hill and Sodrel exchanging barbs about each others’ time in Congress. In the end, however, Hill will likely be crowned the winner.

Michigan

Senate

Incumbent: Carl Levin (D)
5th term (61 percent)
Outlook: Safe Democratic

With a little-known state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk (R) as an opponent, Levin has an easy re-election. Not only is he still popular in the state, Michigan has trended increasingly blue in recent cycles. Levin should have nothing to worry about on Nov. 4.

House

7th district
Incumbent: Tim Walberg (R)
1st term (50 percent)
Outlook: Tossup

Democrats nominated state Sen. Mark Schauer to take on Walberg, whom they have always viewed as a weak candidate.

If it’s a question of resources, Democrats definitely have the upper hand in the district. Schauer is a money-raising machine from his time in the state Senate. What’s more, Walberg does not make a secret of the fact that he does not like to fundraise.

But the district might just vote too Republican for Democrats to pick up the seat, especially in a presidential cycle. Democrats probably would not have a good shot at this seat if a Republican other than Walberg were on the ballot. Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) decision to pull out of Michigan does not help the incumbent.

9th district
Incumbent: Joe Knollenberg (R)
8th term (52 percent)
Outlook: Tossup

Knollenberg got a scare in the previous cycle when a poorly funded Democratic opponent kept him to 52 percent of the vote. This cycle, he appears to be doing everything he can to avoid a surprise on Nov. 4.

Democrats have recruited former state Lottery Commissioner Gary Peters to challenge Knollenberg. A solid candidate with good fundraising skills, Peters will give Knollenberg his best challenge in a few cycles. If the district has a good presidential turnout for Democrats, it may be more than Peters needs to push him over the finish line. In 2004, President Bush won the district by only 6,000 votes.

Yet while this district may be more welcoming to Democrats on paper than the 7th, Knollenberg, unlike Walberg, is a seasoned campaigner who will not lose his seat without a fight. Peters, on the other hand, will likely attempt to tie Knollenberg to the Bush administration and Washington, D.C., Republicans in hopes of stealing his seat.

Minnesota

Senate

Incumbent: Norm Coleman (R)
1st term (50 percent)
Outlook: Tossup

In what could be the most negative race of the cycle — especially for a state that bills itself as Minnesota nice — Coleman has found himself in a race against comedian Al Franken (D). Republicans and even some Democrats had written Franken off more than a few times over the past two years, but he appears to have rebounded to competitive status every time.

The reality for Minnesota Republicans is that the state has trended fairly Democratic in recent cycles and sometimes it only takes a half-decent Democrat to defeat a Republican incumbent. And with presidential polls in the state giving Democrats the edge, Franken could ride the big, blue wave to victory in November.