Midwest
Roll Call Staff
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Illinois
Senate
Incumbent: Dick Durbin (D)
2nd term (60 percent)
Outlook: Safe Democratic
Durbin, who’s said to be eyeing Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-Nev.) job whenever it becomes vacant, is expected to coast to a third term in his Election Day battle with physician Steve Sauerberg (R), whose self-funded candidacy failed to launch in the heavily Democratic state.
Land of Lincoln voters are expected to turn out in droves for home-state presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D), likely adding to Durbin’s vote cushion, which was 22 points in his 2002 matchup with state Rep. Jim Durkin (R).
House
6th district
Incumbent: Peter Roskam (R)
1st term (51 percent)
Outlook: Likely Republican
The district was the site of the marquee 2006 race involving Roskam and Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth (D), but talk of Democrats flipping the seat has quieted dramatically in recent months, as Roskam has avoided typical freshman gaffes — and a credible Democratic challenger.
Jill Morgenthaler, also an Iraq War veteran, was recruited and groomed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, but she has struggled to raise money or make herself known to voters in the suburban Chicagoland district. As of July 1, she had just $231,000 in cash, compared with Roskam’s impressive $1.2 million cash-on-hand total.
Still, Morgenthaler’s lackluster performance as a candidate this cycle could be offset by a bump in Democratic turnout for presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D) in a district where Roskam won by fewer than 5,000 votes just two years ago.
8th district
Incumbent: Melissa Bean (D)
2nd term (51 percent)
Outlook: Likely Democratic
Like her colleague Rep. Peter Roskam (R) in the nearby 6th district, Bean plans to ride to an easy win on political elbow grease and a lot of luck Nov. 4 in her theoretically competitive suburban Chicago district.
Once touted as a top National Republican Congressional Committee recruit, Bean’s challenger, businessman Steve Greenberg, flamed out early on in the cycle, quickly becoming a poster boy for GOP recruiting woes in 2008. The former professional hockey player’s alleged ability to self-finance originally enticed many Republicans, but his cash never materialized — nor has his candidacy.
But Bean’s district remains competitive for the independent-minded lawmaker, who has twice struggled to get more than 50 percent from voters who twice picked President Bush.
10th district
Incumbent: Mark Kirk (R)
4th term (53 percent)
Outlook: Tossup
Even Republicans are worried about Kirk, whose wealthy North Shore Chicago electorate is divided evenly among Democrats, Republicans and independents — a worrisome split, GOPers say, given this year’s political climate.
But Kirk saw the writing on the wall early in the cycle, setting off on a fundraising tear in anticipation of a tough rematch with marketing consultant Dan Seals (D), who did better than expected in 2006. Anticipating no help from the National Republican Congressional Committee, Kirk through July 1 had raised a jaw-dropping $3.5 million for the cycle and had $2.8 million-plus in cash on hand.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which ignored him the previous cycle, began courting Seals almost immediately after Election Day 2006. And since then the political novice, too, has posted impressive fundraising totals, raising $2.1 million and banking $1.2 million through June 30.
Democrats are confident of Seals’ chances, but whether the DCCC is confident enough in Seals to infuse substantial cash into Chicago’s expensive media market — where the committee may have more pressing issues — remains to be seen. In a district that votes for Democrats in White House elections, Kirk is hoping for as many ticket-splitters as possible.
11th district
Open seat: Jerry Weller (R)
is retiring
Outlook: Tossup
There will be blood. That’s what Democrats and Republicans alike are predicting in the final weeks of the open-seat matchup pitting Chicago concrete baron Martin Ozinga (R) against state Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson (D).
The biggest factor going into the final weeks may be whether Ozinga decides to self-finance his campaign, which he is capable of but so far has been reluctant to do. But with the Supreme Court striking down the “Millionaires’ Amendment” three months ago, Ozinga could quickly match Halvorson on the cash front and perhaps offset a presumptive heavy financial commitment by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which has already spent more than $500,000 on the race.
Chun: Cyber Attacks Demand Strong Public-Private Response
Nov. 6, 12:35 p.m.
The federal government is increasingly taking a leadership role in improving the nation’s cybersecurity. But, with a threat that is quickly growing and more sophisticated each day, it’s clear that the government — for all of its good intentions — cannot win this battle without a robust commitment from technology companies. Read Full Article
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