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Because President Bush garnered nearly 177,000 votes in the 2nd district in 2004, Boyda must secure a large number of crossover votes in this contest, and that won’t be easy.

All of this could spell trouble for the incumbent.

3rd district
Incumbent: Dennis Moore (D)
5th term (65 percent)
Outlook: Likely Democratic

In state Sen. Nick Jordan, the GOP finally found a candidate who could unite the conservative and moderate wings of the Republicans who live in this suburban Kansas City, conservative-leaning district.

However, there is no evidence that Jordan — who is legitimately a good candidate — is breaking through against Moore, who in 2004 fell just 2,000 votes short of matching President Bush in votes earned in the district.

Jordan is running a credible campaign, and the GOP is hoping that Moore — who for the first time is running as a Member of the House majority — will be weighed down at home by the actions of his party’s leadership.

But Moore has long had a solid relationship with constituents going back to his days as a county prosecutor. Jordan may yet give Moore a scare, but thus far the incumbent remains in good shape.

Missouri

House

6th district
Incumbent: Sam Graves (R)
4th term (62 percent)
Outlook: Tossup

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee claimed a recruiting victory more than one year ago when Kay Barnes, a popular former two-term mayor of Kansas City, filed to challenge Graves. Democrats are now warning that Graves’ northwestern Show-Me State district may host one of the ugliest House races of the cycle.

Already more than a year into her candidacy, Barnes has kept up with Graves in fundraising. Perhaps sensing a credible challenge, Graves hit the airwaves earlier this summer with arguably the most colorful televised attack ad of the cycle. In one well-publicized ad buy, Graves hit the airwaves with an ad bashing Barnes for attending a fundraiser at the home of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), a testament to her “San Francisco values.”

Democrats and Republicans alike say to expect more of the same in the contest’s final weeks. Both candidates are armed with sizable war chests for the district’s relatively inexpensive media markets. As of mid-July, the incumbent had $936,000 in cash, compared with Barnes, an EMILY’s List candidate, who had $962,000.

And adding to the likelihood of an all-out brawl before Election Day, the race is expected to be decided in the district’s conservative northern rural counties, typically Graves’ strongholds where Barnes is now playing up her family’s rural ties — in the hopes of siphoning off as many votes there as possible.

9th district
Open seat: Kenny Hulshof (R) is running for governor
Outlook: Leans Republican

Hulshof’s decision to run for governor this year has Democrats eyeing a rare open-seat pickup opportunity in a place that’s been a Republican stronghold for more than a decade.

Freshman state Rep. Judy Baker (D), an EMILY’s List candidate, emerged from a bruising primary that included former state Speaker Steve Gaw (D), the early primary frontrunner whose campaign had difficulty raising money. Baker now faces former state tourism director Blaine Luetkemeyer, who defeated Club for Growth-backed candidate Bob Onder in a tough GOP primary.

Fresh off of hard-fought primaries, both Luetkemeyer and Baker have kept a low profile since August, but the tenor is expected to change in the contest’s closing weeks. The district is the school-year home for tens of thousands of University of Missouri-Columbia and Truman State University students, and presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D) is targeting Dixiecrat towns along the Mississippi River.

Still, Luetkemeyer’s deep pockets could more than make up the difference in this conservative-leaning district, which includes the crimson red western St. Louis suburbs and heavily German Catholic communities along the Missouri River.

Nebraska

Senate

Open seat: Chuck Hagel (R) is retiring
Outlook: Safe Republican

Former Agriculture Secretary and ex-Gov. Mike Johanns (R) is running a textbook campaign in an overwhelmingly Republican state in a presidential year — and against a conventional Democratic candidate.