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• A Year When Everybody’s Vulnerable
• Roll Call Casualty List
• The Big Picture (PDF)

Regional Breakdown

• New England
• Mid-Atlantic
• South
• Midwest
• Southwest
• Mountain
• West

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Iowa

Senate

Incumbent: Tom Harkin (D)
4th term (54 percent)
Outlook: Safe Democratic

If Harkin’s seat was any safer, he’d be preparing to be installed as “Senator for Life.”

The Republican nominee, businessman and Navy veteran Chris Reed, is swimming upstream. His fundraising has been, to be charitable, anemic; he has failed to attract any sort of buzz — even as an underdog insurgent type of candidate; and he’s running in a state where Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has maintained a solid lead in the presidential contest over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

This is a welcome change for Harkin, who has never won more than 55 percent of the vote in any of his Senate races.

House

4th district
Incumbent: Tom Latham (R)
7th term (57 percent)
Outlook: Likely Republican

Latham is running against Dallas County Democratic Party Chairwoman Becky Greenwald.

In this competitively drawn north-central Iowa district, Latham should be safe. However, there remains a possibility that Sen. Barack Obama’s (Ill.) White House candidacy will create a Democratic tide that lifts all boats in the Hawkeye State, even that of a minimally funded Democratic House candidate who only recently began to appear as though she was running a viable campaign.

Greenwald reported $70,000 on hand as of July 31, compared with Latham’s $832,000.

Greenwald was recently endorsed by EMILY’s List and is currently up on television with solid ads, so she could be positioned to take advantage of an Obama surge.

But Latham has never taken this race for granted, and he could benefit from helping his constituents recover from the summer floods. Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in September named a group of long-shot candidates to its vaunted “Red to Blue” list — but not Greenwald.

Advantage Latham — and an undeniable missed opportunity for the DCCC.

Kansas

Senate

Incumbent: Pat Roberts (R)
2nd term (83 percent)
Outlook: Safe Republican

In former Rep. Jim Slattery, the Democrats found a viable candidate capable of capitalizing on any bump his party might have received from Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-Ill.) White House bid.

After all, Obama’s mother and maternal grandparents were native Kansans, and Democrats have fared well in the Jayhawk State at the gubernatorial and Congressional levels over the past few cycles.

Plus, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has millions of dollars at its disposal that it could spend in Kansas’ relatively cheap media markets.

However, Roberts has remained one of the Republicans from his state that voters haven’t soured on. And Roberts’ poll numbers, fundraising and aggressive campaign have shown no signs of a letdown that would allow Slattery to break through or encourage the DSCC to spend some of its vast fortune there.

Additionally, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) looks poised for an easy victory in Kansas, eliminating any chance that Slattery might have some coattails to latch onto. Roberts should win comfortably.

House

2nd district
Incumbent: Nancy Boyda (D)
1st term (51 percent)
Outlook: Tossup

The heavily rural, eastern Kansas district is conservative territory, and Boyda, who won the seat in an upset two years ago, has a fight on her hands from state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins (R).

Democrats say Boyda has voted sufficiently independent of her party on the House floor to secure the Republican and independent conservative voters she’ll need to win in a district that is expected to elect Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) president and re-elect Sen. Pat Roberts (R).

Republicans contend that Boyda is a liberal with a voting record to match, and they believe Jenkins has the right profile to win. But Jenkins’ record as a moderate on some key issues could turn off enough GOP voters to leave the door open for Boyda to win a second term.

However, the larger universe of voters who participate in presidential elections but not in midterms could ultimately be what sinks Boyda.

In beating then-Rep. Jim Ryun (R) in 2006, Boyda garnered more than 114,000 votes, 7,000 fewer than she did in 2004 when she lost to the Congressman by 15 points. Ryun saw a drop-off of nearly 60,000 votes from 2004 to 2006, as the GOP suffered through its worst Congressional losses in decades.