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Although Tinsley’s general election campaign experienced some missteps early on and saw its campaign manager depart, it appears the Republican might have regained his footing. But Democrats continue to hit him hard, especially on the fact that he owns a home outside of the district in Santa Fe — and appears to spend a substantial amount of time there.
3rd district
Open seat: Tom Udall (D)
is running for Senate
Outlook: Safe Democratic
State Public Regulation Commission Chairman Ben Ray Lujan (D) will win this seat easily in November over construction contractor Dan East (R), and in doing so he will become the first Hispanic member of his state’s Congressional delegation since then-Rep. Bill Richardson (D) joined President Bill Clinton’s Cabinet in 1997.
Lujan’s father is the state Speaker.
Oklahoma
Senate
Incumbent: James Inhofe (R)
3rd term (57 percent)
Outlook: Safe Republican
Oklahomans are fond of electing moderate and conservative Democrats to state office — witness well-liked two-term Gov. Brad Henry (D). But for federal office, the Sooner State has a penchant for Republicans, who better reflect the state’s conservative political leanings on visceral cultural and economic issues that factor heavily into House and Senate races.
That’s one big reason Inhofe is in such good shape against state Sen. Andrew Rice (D). Rice, whose brother was killed in the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, is young and energetic and has a compelling story. He has raised a decent amount of money and is waging an aggressive media campaign that is attempting to paint the incumbent as past his prime and out of touch.
Unfortunately for Rice, it’s he who is generally out of touch with Oklahoma voters — at least on the issues that tend to motivate whom they support for federal office.
Rice’s long-shot hope is that Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Charles Schumer (N.Y.), a big fan of his, decides to unload some of the DSCC’s vast resources into Oklahoma’s relatively inexpensive media markets. That might be enough to make Rice competitive on Nov. 4. Maybe.
House
5th district
Incumbent: Mary Fallin (R)
1st term (60 percent)
Outlook: Safe Republican
The biggest hurdle Fallin will probably ever face is in the past — her victory in the crowded and competitive 5th district GOP primary that first secured her nomination to the seat and an easy victory in the 2006 general election. Look for another easy ride for the freshman Congresswoman this November against attorney Steve Perry (D) in the overwhelmingly conservative, Oklahoma City-area district.
Texas
Senate
Incumbent: John Cornyn (R)
1st term (55 percent)
Outlook: Safe Republican
With the 2008 presidential race reverting to the form of the past two White House contests — the strong Republican states in the bag for Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) and the solidly Democratic states a gimme for Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) — Cornyn looks to be in extremely good shape, not that state Rep. Rick Noriega (D) was ever a real threat.
Noriega has an attractive biography and a long record of public service, including his current stint in the National Guard and time spent in combat in Afghanistan. But his positions on major issues are boilerplate liberal, giving him a profile that is politically untenable for most Texans — and far from approaching that of the conservative Texas Democrat that occasionally appeals across party lines.
Additionally, Noriega and his campaign have shown a penchant for gaffes and mistakes that prove the Democrat wasn’t ready for prime time in a state like Texas, where there are 20 distinct media markets. Even without all of these deficiencies, Noriega needed Obama to change up the electoral map to give him some coattails to grab onto, something that clearly isn’t happening, at least not in Texas.
House
7th district
Incumbent: John Culberson (R)
4th term (59 percent)
Outlook: Likely Republican
Schumer Advocates for Many on Panel
Nov. 16, 12 a.m.
As Senate Majority Leader, Lyndon Johnson once said of the Joint Economic Committee, “It’s as useless as tits on a bull.” But as that panel’s chairman during the 110th Congress, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) seized the opportunity to elevate the traditionally low-profile post to the forefront of shaping policy. Read Full Article
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