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Arizona

House

1st district
Open seat: Rick Renzi (R) is retiring
Outlook: Leans Democratic

Republicans initially thought Renzi’s departure — he was indicted earlier this year on 35 corruption counts — would help them hold on to the seat, but they could not recruit a top-tier candidate.

Former state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) gets the slight edge over anti-tax activist Sydney Hay (R), based partly on her superior financial advantage, which is being bolstered by a cash-rich Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

This sprawling northern and eastern Arizona district leans conservative despite the fact that a majority of its voters are registered Democrats. But it is not overwhelmingly conservative, and Hay, who ran for the 1st district seat in 2002 but lost the GOP primary to Renzi, is viewed as too far to the right for most voters.

Kirkpatrick may be seen by some voters as too liberal. But she is likely to fare better with the key American Indian voting bloc than Hay. Renzi’s strong relationship with the American Indian community bolstered his three victories in the 1st district, and Hay is seen as unlikely to replicate that particular success.

3rd district
Incumbent: John Shadegg (R)
7th term (59 percent)
Outlook: Likely Republican

Shadegg is facing a spirited challenge from attorney Bob Lord. The Democrat is well-funded, on the air with multiple television spots and attempting to position himself as something of a centrist. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has also been advertising in the 3rd district on Lord’s behalf.

But the suburban Phoenix 3rd district remains solid Republican territory, and Shadegg should benefit from the newfound energy among the GOP base in the wake of hometown Sen. John McCain’s (Ariz.) decision to select Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) as his vice presidential running mate — not to mention McCain’s position at the top of the ticket.

Shadegg’s short-lived decision to retire — he changed his mind several days later after being pressured by colleagues and constituents — gives Democrats some extra hope, but it shouldn’t be much of a factor among average voters.

5th district
Incumbent: Harry Mitchell (D)
1st term (50 percent)
Outlook: Leans Democratic

Former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, who emerged from a crowded and competitive GOP primary, is a viable candidate who in a more hospitable environment for Republicans — and against a different Democrat — would have a better chance of winning.

But Mitchell has run for office in some portion of the GOP-leaning 5th district almost 20 times, and the voters there simply like him and do not see him as being as politically out of step as Republicans argue.

Despite Arizona Sen. John McCain’s position at the top of the ticket as the GOP presidential nominee, Schweikert is still likely to fall short, thanks in no small part to the late Sept. 2 date of the GOP primary and the lack of national Republican funds to spend on this race. Financial support from the Club for Growth — which endorsed him in the primary — will help Schweikert some, but not enough to make a difference.

8th district
Incumbent: Gabrielle Giffords (D)
1st term (54 percent)
Outlook: Leans Democratic

State Senate President Tim Bee is probably the only Republican who could have beaten Giffords this year — except that no one could have beaten her this year.

The 8th district leans Republican, but Giffords has successfully positioned herself as the kind of moderate 8th district politician that voters like (see: moderate former GOP Rep. Jim Kolbe, whom Giffords succeeded). That has made it tough for Bee to tout his own moderate credentials.