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Still, the 4th district is reflexively conservative, and a strong victory there by the Republican White House ticket might aid Musgrave, along with the possibility that the district’s voters might yet stay true to their political moorings.
6th district
Open seat: Tom Tancredo (R)
is retiring
Outlook: Safe Republican
Colorado Secretary of State Mike Coffman won a competitive four-way Republican primary on Aug. 12, and he looks to cruise to victory this November in this solidly conservative, suburban Denver district.
Aviation consultant Hank Eng is the Democrats’ sacrificial lamb.
Idaho
Senate
Open seat: Larry Craig (R)
is retiring
Outlook: Safe Republican
Lt. Gov. Jim Risch (R) could be headed toward another 20-point victory over former Rep. Larry LaRocco (D). LaRocco lost to Risch by nearly 20 points in the 2006 race for lieutenant governor, and he shows no signs that he can beat Risch in this contest.
LaRocco should be credited for running a spirited race. He has campaigned up and down the state for about 18 months, attempting to build support in the Republican bastion that is Idaho by working jobs in different industries for a day or two at a time.
LaRocco’s campaign is also reasonably well-staffed, helping to ensure that the underdog Democrat squeezes every ounce of attention he can get from earned media.
But LaRocco’s got three problems: He’s a Democrat, he’s a liberal and he’s extremely underfunded compared to Risch. Meanwhile, Risch — though not universally loved — is fairly well-liked and very well-known.
During his first term as lieutenant governor, Risch was elevated to the governor’s office after then-Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R) left the job to serve in President Bush’s Cabinet. Risch’s record while serving in the top job did nothing to cause himself any major political problems in the Senate race.
Risch chose to run for re-election as lieutenant governor in 2006, even though he was officially the governor in the midst of that re-election.
House
1st district
Incumbent: Bill Sali (R)
1st term (50 percent)
Outlook: Leans Republican
Democrat Walt Minnick is running just the campaign required to upset Sali.
The 1996 Senate candidate and wealthy former CEO of a forest products company is attempting to position himself as a libertarian-style moderate Democrat, while capitalizing on the fact that Sali has failed to ingratiate himself with his constituents, most of whom are partisan Republicans.
Minnick has a few high-profile Republicans backing him, and he continues to raise far more money than the incumbent, not to mention his willingness to spend personal money.
But even given Sali’s penchant for bad PR and his poor relationship with many top Idaho Republicans, the incumbent has in his favor the 1st district’s strong GOP lean and the fact that it is a presidential year.
Additionally, despite Sali’s contentious relationship with Republicans like Gov. Butch Otter and Rep. Mike Simpson, he has managed to bond with many of the local GOP’s grass-roots activists. That, and Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) expected big victory in the district over Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), should be enough to protect Sali from himself.
Montana
Senate
Incumbent: Max Baucus (D)
5th term (63 percent)
Outlook: Safe Democratic
It doesn’t get any easier for Baucus. The Senate Finance chairman is facing perennial candidate Bob Kelleher (R), whose platform includes changing the federal government into a parliamentary system.
Baucus, nonetheless, was prepared for a more formidable challenge. Before the June primary, the Big Sky Senator had more than $5.5 million in the bank, dozens of staffers on the ground and campaign offices all over the state. It could be argued that Baucus was attempting to win votes by employing everyone in the state.
In the weeks leading up to the election, you won’t hear much from these campaigns. Barring some major unforeseen event, Baucus will win re-election easily.
House
At-large
Incumbent: Denny Rehberg (R)
4th term (59 percent)
Outlook: Safe Republican
Although state Democrats recruited someone to run against Rehberg, their chosen candidate lost the primary to a quirky perennial candidate. Former Public Service Commissioner and state Speaker John Driscoll has no intention of raising any money or going out of his way to campaign for the seat.
Schumer Advocates for Many on Panel
Nov. 16, 12 a.m.
As Senate Majority Leader, Lyndon Johnson once said of the Joint Economic Committee, “It’s as useless as tits on a bull.” But as that panel’s chairman during the 110th Congress, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) seized the opportunity to elevate the traditionally low-profile post to the forefront of shaping policy. Read Full Article
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