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Colorado

Senate

Open seat: Wayne Allard (R) is retiring
Outlook: Leans Democratic

Nearly every poll taken of this race has shown Rep. Mark Udall (D) with a reversible but still decisive lead over former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R).

The energy issue played well for Schaffer over the summer and may yet play dividends for him in late October. But Udall, an ardent environmentalist, appears to have pivoted out of trouble nicely by going on television and saying he supports more domestic oil drilling.

Udall actually does have a House voting record that is more liberal than most Colorado voters, and Schaffer has a good case to make that the Democratic Congressman is likely to govern to the left of where many Coloradans would be comfortable.

But Udall has never been in trouble in this race. It’s Schaffer who has periodically been on the defensive, particularly over his ties to disgraced GOP lobbyist Jack Abramoff. And Udall simply appears to be the more likeable of the two candidates, with the Democrat’s outdoorsy, rugged image proving a good counterweight to his liberal record.

Ultimately, this race will be decided by the swing-voting women who live in the Denver suburbs. They tend to lean conservative philosophically but have voted for Democrats in recent years, including now-Sen. Ken Salazar in 2004 and now-Gov. Bill Ritter in 2006.

Schaffer could see a big lift from rural Colorado and his old stomping grounds in the northern 4th district. A high turnout in these regions combined with some help from the Republican White House ticket — particularly the vice presidential nominee, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin — could propel him to victory.

But Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has been competitive with Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in Colorado throughout the campaign, and it’s hard to see how even a narrow GOP presidential victory aids Schaffer.

House

2nd district
Open seat: Mark Udall (D) is running for Senate
Outlook: Safe Democratic

Wealthy Internet entrepreneur and former state Board of Education President Jared Polis emerged from a bruising Democratic primary to capture his party’s nomination, and he now has an easy path to victory on Nov. 4 in an overwhelmingly Democratic district.

At least Republican Scott Starin can say he was on the ballot.

4th district
Incumbent: Marilyn Musgrave (R)
3rd term (46 percent)
Outlook: Tossup

The northern and eastern Colorado 4th district leans decidedly Republican and has been held by the GOP since the early 1970s. But Musgrave, having taken a pounding from Democrats and Democratic interest groups since the 2004 cycle, looks headed toward defeat at the hands of former Senate aide Betsy Markey (D).

Musgrave barely survived in the previous cycle, but she squeaked by in large part because her 2006 opponent was a poor fit for the district and perceived as too liberal. Markey, however, is increasingly seen as an acceptable Democrat, according to both independent polls and partisan Democratic surveys.

Markey is running as a practical, business-minded Democrat, much in the same vein as did now-Sen. Ken Salazar and now-Gov. Bill Ritter. Markey also has a decent understanding of the district, having worked for Salazar as his in-state director for the region covering most of the 4th district.

Musgrave continues to suffer from a reputation that she went to Washington, D.C., and got caught up in opposing same-sex marriage at the expense of bread-and-butter issues and constituent services. But she has tried hard this Congress to reverse it.

Musgrave, who farms along with her husband in a small community 90 minutes northeast of Denver, has traveled home nearly every weekend during her tenure and boasts some high-profile bipartisan achievements with Rep. Mark Udall (D) — Udall himself has bragged about these achievements as he seeks to position himself as a centrist in the Senate race.

But ultimately, Musgrave might be most known for carrying a bill in 2004 to ban same-sex marriage. And the nearly $10 million in independent expenditures that has been spent against her to tear down her image looks poised to finally have its desired effect.