West
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Smith has a solid case to make that he is the kind of centrist independent Oregonians have long preferred. His voting record on key issues certainly reflects that. In this race, however, that might not be enough.
For Merkley, the task is simply to appear credible enough to be a Senator while avoiding the kind of major gaffe that could disqualify him from being seen as a preferable alternative to Smith. The Obama tide could be particularly strong in Oregon, and Merkley could be swept to victory by that fact alone.
The wildcard in all of this is Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow, a libertarian-style conservative who polls show could be hurting Smith. If this trend continues, the incumbent’s ability to win re-election could be in further peril.
The debate over the $700 billion package to rescue the financial markets could also come into play. Smith voted for the bipartisan legislation, and Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) voted against it. Merkley immediately came out in support of Wyden’s no vote, while hammering Smith for backing the bill.
House
5th district
Open seat: Darlene Hooley (D)
is retiring
Outlook: Likely Democratic
For years, Hooley was a top Republican target. Her decision to retire, along with the entry of wealthy businessman Mike Erickson (R) into the race to succeed her, had the GOP feeling bullish on its chances of flipping this seat.
Erickson had run in 2006 and spent a considerable amount of his own money to put a scare into Hooley. But this time around, things haven’t gone as planned for Republicans.
To begin with, this is no longer a majority Republican district. In all of the voter registration activity by Democrats that accompanied their competitive presidential primary, they overtook the GOP and now hold an edge among enrolled voters in the district.
Second, Erickson’s candidacy began to encounter problems in the GOP primary, when his opponent in that race accused him of lying about whether he had ever paid for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion. Erickson opposes abortion rights.
Erickson still won his primary, but he has been dogged ever since on several issues relating to his truthfulness.
State Sen. Kurt Schrader is running for the Democrats. He won a primary over viable competition and enjoys wide support among the Democratic establishment.
Schrader should benefit from the slight Democratic tilt of the district and Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-Ill.) presidential campaign. But most of all, he is likely to benefit from his opponent’s flaws. This must be considered a wasted opportunity for the Republicans.
Washington
House
8th district
Incumbent: Dave Reichert (R)
2nd term (51 percent)
Outlook: Tossup
For a second cycle, this district is one of the most competitive in the country. Reichert defeated Darcy Burner (D) by a few thousand votes in 2006. Burner, a former software executive, is back for a second round with the former King County sheriff made famous for catching the “Green River Killer.”
There’s no question that the national parties will pour funds into this race. But what will likely determine the results of this rematch is the top of the ticket: If enough Democrats turn out for their presidential nominee and vote straight ticket, Burner could defeat Reichert. The district is trending ever more Democratic, but Reichert isn’t seen as a partisan politician. To the extent that Burner and the Democrats can paint him as a typical Republican, they should be able to profit.
Schumer Advocates for Many on Panel
Nov. 16, 12 a.m.
As Senate Majority Leader, Lyndon Johnson once said of the Joint Economic Committee, “It’s as useless as tits on a bull.” But as that panel’s chairman during the 110th Congress, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) seized the opportunity to elevate the traditionally low-profile post to the forefront of shaping policy. Read Full Article
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