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Hawaii

House

2nd district
Incumbent Mazie Hirono (D)
1st term (61 percent)
Outlook: Safe Democratic

Neither House race in Hawaii is competitive this cycle. Hirono will coast to another term. None of her token opponents, who include a no-name Republican, a Libertarian and an Independent, has raised any money.

Nevada

House

2nd district
Incumbent: Dean Heller (R)
1st term (50 percent)
Outlook: Likely Republican

In Nevada’s sprawling, 106,000-square-mile 2nd district, state Democratic Party Chairwoman Jill Derby is in a rematch with Heller after losing to him in an open-seat battle last cycle by 5 points.

But Heller is expected to be in a better position this time around, running from the incumbent’s seat in a district that gave President Bush 57 percent of the vote in the last presidential election.

This cycle, Heller was able to avoid a primary challenge from the former state Assemblywoman whom he narrowly beat in a bitter Republican primary race in 2006. As such, he has been able to store up large amounts of campaign cash. At the end of July, Heller had more than $1 million in cash on hand compared with Derby’s $314,000.

But Derby is receiving support from EMILY’s List, a powerful fundraising organization that supports abortion rights, and she has also been added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” fundraising and infrastructure program.

Derby has cited high voter turnout in the state’s Democratic presidential nominating caucus earlier this year as one reason why she expects to surpass her performance in 2006.

But a mid-June poll in the 2nd district showed Derby down 14 points to Heller.

3rd district
Incumbent: Jon Porter (R)
3rd term: (48 percent)
Outlook: Tossup

The high voter turnout from Nevada’s Democratic presidential nominating caucus combined with population growth that continues to favor Democrats in the district means that Republicans face a very tough challenge holding this suburban Las Vegas seat in the fall.

Porter has come to be seen as one of the most vulnerable incumbents of the cycle, especially since popular state Sen. Dina Titus (the party’s 2006 gubernatorial nominee) jumped into the race at the last minute. Titus replaced former Clark County prosecutor Robert Daskas, who made an unexpected exit from the race just before the state’s filing deadline.

During her gubernatorial bid, Titus won the 3rd district, and Democrats tried to get her into the 2008 Congressional contest early in the cycle before eventually turning to Daskas. Because the man who defeated her in 2006, now-Gov. Jim Gibbons (R), has had such a rocky term, some voters may be feeling buyer’s remorse, and Titus should be able to take advantage.

After entering the race, Titus was quickly endorsed by EMILY’s List, a group that supports abortion rights, and she was added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” fundraising and infrastructure program.

Titus is also being boosted by a special DCCC fund for female candidates, and the DCCC has reserved more than $1 million in television advertising time in the district.

Titus’ profile and efforts by the Democratic Party appear to be paying off. A Democratic poll released in late September found Titus ahead of Porter, 46 percent to 37 percent.

Oregon

Senate

Incumbent: Gordon Smith (R)
2nd term (56 percent)
Outlook: Tossup

Smith is in a dogfight against state Speaker Jeff Merkley.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Democratic interest groups are spending millions of dollars to help Merkley outlast Smith, who has been significantly better-funded than Merkley since the race began in earnest earlier this year.

Smith has thus far received considerably less outside help as he seeks to hold onto his job in a state that has become remarkably more Democratic than it was when he won his second term in 2002. The National Republican Senatorial Committee simply doesn’t have the money to compete with the DSCC.

With a month left to go, Smith’s fortunes are tied to his ability to withstand Democratic attacks while maintaining the support of enough Democrats and independents who will be voting for Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) for president. The polling trends show Smith is straddling the line on this front.