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However, it is notable that Brown’s best tactic is to campaign on his biography rather than his position on key issues, like taxes, abortion and Iraq. Brown would have a better chance in this district if he was a conservative Democrat who opposed abortion rights, was more ardently against taxes and had favored the Iraq War surge.
McClintock is a perfect ideological fit for the 4th district. And even though he represents a state Senate district in Southern California and doesn’t live in the district, he is among the most beloved Republicans in the state.
His name identification in the 4th district is high, courtesy of the several times that he has run for statewide office. Even in losing the 2006 race for lieutenant governor, McClintock won the 4th district, and in doing so, he received far more votes than either Brown or Doolittle.
For all of these reasons, Brown’s attempt to diminish McClintock by labeling him as a carpet-bagging political opportunist is likely to fall short of its objective. It also doesn’t help Brown that McClintock isn’t weighed down by ethical issues, as Doolittle was in 2006.
11th district
Incumbent: Jerry McNerney (D)
1st term (53 percent)
Outlook: Leans Democratic
Democrats’ arguments to the contrary, former state Assemblyman Dean Andal is a great Republican candidate for this seat — at least on paper.
In his political career, Andal has shown an ability to win Democratic and independent votes without hemorrhaging the support of his fellow Republicans. He has deep roots in this inland central California district and is ideologically in sync with a majority of 11th district voters.
The 11th district leans Republican. And even though McNerney won the seat in 2006, his victory was credited largely to the millions of dollars that environmental activist groups spent to tear down the incumbent, then-Rep. Richard Pombo (R). McNerney, who the GOP charges is too liberal for this seat, has in fact given Andal plenty of ammunition to credibly make that charge.
But Andal’s campaign tactics have been questionable, while McNerney’s effort has been textbook.
McNerney has raised far more money than Andal so far and is likely to maintain his considerable financial edge over his GOP challenger even after the third-quarter numbers are tallied. McNerney also has the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s bank account to rely on for help; Andal can’t say the same about the National Republican Congressional Committee.
McNerney has avoided picking up any major bad press during his first term, and it’s possible that Andal has waited too long to begin tearing him down to have the desired effect on Election Day. There is also a question regarding whether Andal has raised enough money to beat McNerney (Andal’s campaign insists it has).
The Andal campaign argues that its superior grass-roots effort, combined with the district’s GOP leanings, will get the job done on Nov. 4. Democrats argue that they have been able to fatally damage Andal in the eyes of the voters — at least enough to protect McNerney.
50th district
Incumbent: Brian Bilbray (R)
2nd term (54 percent;
previously served three terms in a different district)
Outlook: Likely Republican
It’s hard to believe this coastal San Diego-area district was briefly the center of the political universe in early 2006, when Bilbray made his political comeback in a special election. Now the district is almost certain to stay in the Republican column for a while.
But Democrats have an intriguing young candidate in attorney Nick Leibham, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee could throw some money his way if the race appears to be tightening in the end. Still, Bilbray seems to fit the district pretty well, and he’s probably capable of withstanding all but the most intense Democratic surge.
52nd district
Open seat: Duncan Hunter (R)
is retiring
Outlook: Safe Republican
Marine Corps Reservist Duncan D. Hunter (R), the Congressman’s son, is set to succeed his father in Congress next year. Retired Navy officer Mike Lumpkin (D) doesn’t stand a chance in this overwhelmingly conservative district — particularly in light of the fact that Congressman Hunter is nearly universally popular in the San Diego County area.
Schumer Advocates for Many on Panel
Nov. 16, 12 a.m.
As Senate Majority Leader, Lyndon Johnson once said of the Joint Economic Committee, “It’s as useless as tits on a bull.” But as that panel’s chairman during the 110th Congress, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) seized the opportunity to elevate the traditionally low-profile post to the forefront of shaping policy. Read Full Article
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