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Alaska

Senate

Incumbent: Ted Stevens (R)
7th term (78 percent)
Outlook: Tossup

Just a few months ago, most political operatives from the “lower 48” had written Stevens off. With an ongoing federal investigation into the activities of the Senator and his associates, it was hard to believe that he could be competitive. What’s more, Democrats recruited their strongest possible candidate, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, to run against him.

Then the other shoe dropped: Stevens was indicted in July on seven charges of lying on his financial disclosure forms. Even Republican operatives were sure his re-election was dead in the water.

No so fast: Though Stevens’ position in the polls initially tanked after the indictments were announced, he rebounded big time in September. Polls showed him trailing Begich by only 2-6 points — quite a feat for a Senator who was on trial thousands of miles away in Washington, D.C.

It’s more than possible that Stevens could win re-election. He is also helped by his home-state governor being on the national ticket, though GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin had declined to endorse Stevens as of press time.

By all accounts, Begich is a strong candidate. Not only does he manage a city that comprises almost half of the state’s population, he also enjoys relatively high approval ratings. He’s also aided by other names on the ticket: the Democrats’ nominee for president and the at-large House seat also play well in the state — though likely not as big of a boost that Stevens will get from Palin.

The big question mark in this race is not in Alaska — it’s in Washington. If Stevens is found guilty at the end of his trial, which is scheduled to finish before Election Day, he might lose his eighth bid for the seat. But never underestimate how much Alaskans are thankful for dear “Uncle Ted.” Even if he’s found guilty, it’s possible voters could still find him worthy of re-election.

House

At-large
Incumbent: Don Young (R)
18th term (57 percent)
Outlook: Leans Democratic

Unlike his Senate counterpart, Young doesn’t inspire the same fond feelings from the public as “Uncle Ted” Stevens. After barely winning a bruising Republican primary against Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell and with a federal investigation looming over his candidacy, Young doesn’t find many reasons for voters to like him these days.

What’s more, national Republicans have practically given up on the race. That doesn’t help Young’s fundraising, much of which goes toward helping to pay his legal bills.

Democrats are happy to tout their candidate of choice, former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz. A strong campaigner with one statewide bid under his belt, Berkowitz is as good a candidate as Democrats could hope for in the state.

Yet with so much going against him, there are more than a few polls that show Young trailing Berkowitz by only a few points. As he continues to campaign hard to keep his seat, Young will likely continue to spread the message that gave him his primary win: He has the seniority that helps Alaska. And while Berkowitz stays far away from talking about the investigation, he will do his best to keep independent voters in his column.

California

House

4th district
Incumbent: John Doolittle (R) is retiring
Outlook: Likely Republican

State Sen. Tom McClintock (R) is well positioned to beat retired Air Force Lt. Col. Charlie Brown (D) and should win comfortably when all is said and done in this solidly conservative Northern California district.

But in a volatile election cycle and with an open seat, it’s too early to put the lid on this race.

Brown ran in 2006 and nearly beat Doolittle despite the strong conservative lean of the district. Brown is campaigning largely on his biography as a career military officer, pledging to work with Democrats and Republicans to get things done for the good of the district.