New England
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But Shea-Porter has more than a few things going for her in the GOP-leaning district: Bradley, whom she already defeated one time, emerged from a late and divisive primary and has the low approval rating to prove it. And this cycle, Shea-Porter appears to be welcoming the national party’s much-needed resources to help her campaign.
Shea-Porter’s biggest problem, according to local analysts, will be holding on to her conservative-leaning seat with a competitive presidential race on the ballot. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) consistently edges Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) in polls in the 1st district, which is known to be the more conservative of the state’s two seats. Then again, Shea-Porter lagged behind Bradley for months in the 2006 polls before she surprised the political establishment with her upset win.
More recently, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has made it clear that it is willing to spend the cash to keep the seat, dropping more than a half a million dollars in expenditures in recent weeks. The committee has already run one negative ad critical of Bradley’s record in Washington, D.C. — and it probably won’t be the last spot from the DCCC this cycle tying the former Congressman to President Bush.
2nd district
Incumbent: Paul Hodes (D)
1st term (53 percent)
Outlook: Likely Democratic
Expect a very negative general election battle between Hodes, whom Republicans have tried to brand as a Washington, D.C., liberal, and radio host Jennifer Horn (R). The late four-way GOP primary was already a bloody competition of who could be the most negative toward Hodes. And as a result, his approval rating suffered in public polling.
Nonetheless, Democrats aren’t concerned about Hodes’ re-election and do not expect to put much national money into the race unless things change significantly. But at least they would have the money to support him if the race became more competitive. The cash-strapped National Republican Congressional Committee might not have the means to aid Horn, whose campaign fundraising was anemic in the primary.
What’s more, Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) is polling well in the 2nd district, further aiding Hodes’ re-election campaign. Although he may not be the safest freshman Democrat of the cycle, Hodes will likely keep his seat for the next Congress.
Rhode Island
Senate
Incumbent: Jack Reed (D)
2nd term (78 percent)
Outlook: Safe Democratic
Reed can look forward to a low-key couple of weeks before Election Day. He already defeated his opponent, Bob Tingle (R), by a hefty margin in 2002.
House
2nd district
Incumbent: James Langevin (D)
4th term (73 percent)
Outlook: Safe Democratic
A target for a primary challenge in 2006, Langevin will be re-elected easily this year. His only challenge is from a token Republican candidate, Mark Zaccaria, who previously ran for a handful of local committees and zoning boards.
Vermont
House
At-large
Incumbent: Peter Welch (D)
1st term (53 percent)
Outlook: Safe Democratic
It doesn’t get any easier than this for a freshman in Congress. Welch faces — wait for it — himself for re-election. Well, not exactly. But he managed to pick up the GOP nomination in September when a majority of Republicans wrote in his name on the primary ballot.
That means that this November, it’s Welch (D) vs. Welch (R) on the ballot. Our money is on the former to win re-election.
Schumer Advocates for Many on Panel
Nov. 16, 12 a.m.
As Senate Majority Leader, Lyndon Johnson once said of the Joint Economic Committee, “It’s as useless as tits on a bull.” But as that panel’s chairman during the 110th Congress, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) seized the opportunity to elevate the traditionally low-profile post to the forefront of shaping policy. Read Full Article
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