Related Content

Election Preview

• Video: Inside the Election Preview
• Twenty Questions, So Many Possible Answers
• Time to Play House (PDF)
• A Year When Everybody’s Vulnerable
• Roll Call Casualty List
• The Big Picture (PDF)

Regional Breakdowns

• Mid-Atlantic
• South
• Midwest
• Plains
• Southwest
• Mountain
• West

Print

E-Mail

Reprints

Text Size

Latest News

• Democrats Leaving No GOP Health Care Critique Unchallenged
• Obama Reports on Asia Trip as GOP Hits Health Bill Effort
• Despite Ailing Mother, Baucus Will Return for Saturday Vote
• White House Strongly Backs Reid’s Health Reform Bill
• GOP Leaders Press Obama on Afghanistan

Connecticut

House

2nd district
Incumbent: Joe Courtney (D)
1st term (50 percent)
Outlook: Safe Democratic

It appears that Republicans have all but given up on taking this seat back. Their early recruit, Navy officer Sean Sullivan (R), only had a skeletal amount in his bank account at the end of July: $155,000. Courtney, on the other hand, had a cool $1.4 million in cash on hand.

In the next month, don’t expect to hear much from this race. Once a competitive district, it now appears safe for Courtney for the foreseeable future.

4th district
Incumbent: Christopher Shays (R)
11th term (51 percent)
Outlook: Tossup

Republicans think Shays has found a winning recipe for holding onto his seat. Despite facing top Democratic challengers cycle after cycle, Shays has held on to his suburban district by more than a few thousand votes.

Democrats recruited Greenwich Town Committeeman Jim Himes early on to challenge Shays. Although he does not have the regional following that 2004 and 2006 nominee Diane Farrell had, Democrats hope Himes’ candidate profile might play better in the district. While Farrell emphasized her time as a Westport selectwoman, Himes’ background in the finance sector and his work on urban housing issues could play better with voters in an election cycle that has so far has benefited outsider candidates.

To win this cycle with Himes, Democrats will have to figure out a way to unlock Bridgeport — the largest city in the district — to increase urban voter turnout. Democrats hope having a black presidential nominee on the top of the ticket will help Himes in this area, but it’s hard to be optimistic about a city whose lower-than- expected turnout has cost the party this seat time and time again.

5th district
Incumbent: Christopher Murphy (D)
1st term (56 percent)
Outlook: Likely Democratic

Republicans keep touting state Sen. David Cappiello as a promising candidate for the seat, but it’s nonetheless been difficult for him to get much traction in the district.

Cappiello got his fundraising in gear, bringing in big names to raise money for him in the district and having a cool $711,000 in the bank at the end of July. Even stories tying Cappiello to a corrupt garbage company — arguably the thing most hampering his candidacy — have disappeared from the local newspapers.

Cappiello’s politically moderate profile makes him exactly the kind of Republican candidate who could win the district: He supports abortion rights, boasts a fiscally conservative record in the state Senate and, according to his first television ads, even has a bipartisan marriage. But former Rep. Nancy Johnson (R) had a similar record — and 12 terms in the House behind her — and her race with Murphy in the previous cycle ultimately wasn’t even close.

Watch Cappiello try to spend his money on television advertisements in the next few weeks with the hope of increasing his name identification with voters. But he likely will be unable to match the millions of dollars that Murphy can put into the race and onto the airwaves. What’s more, this district may have become too Democratic in recent cycles for any Republican to win — or hold on to.

Maine

Senate

Incumbent: Susan Collins (R)
2nd term (58 percent)
Outlook: Leans Republican

Democrats could not have found a better candidate to challenge Collins this cycle, but Rep. Tom Allen (D) nonetheless continues to trail her in the polls, often by double digits. While Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) dominates his GOP counterpart Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) in the polls in the state, Allen can’t seem to get much traction at all.

The consensus among both local and national Democrats was that Allen’s standing in the polls would improve once he went up on television. But since he hit the airwaves in early September, there has only been the slightest movement in the race.