Twenty Questions, So Many Possible Answers
Roll Call Staff
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At the beginning of the cycle, Republicans talked about targeting the 60 or so Democrats who represent districts that voted Republican in the 2000 and 2004 presidential races. But in the end, their target list doesn’t extend very far beyond the vulnerable freshmen — many of them in conservative-leaning seats — who were swept into office in the 2006 wave. As it stands now, Rep. Paul Kanjorski (Pa.) is the only veteran Democrat in real jeopardy of losing his seat. Rep. Nick Lampson (D-Texas) is also in danger. He was elected in 2006 but served in the House previously. Democratic Reps. Jim Marshall (Ga.), Baron Hill (Ind.) and Dennis Moore (Kan.) have served several terms and their re-elections aren’t a sure bet, but they currently seem to have the edge in their contests. Polls consistently show Congressional approval ratings at an all-time low. But it’s unlikely the party that controls Congress will suffer big losses because of that.
15) How many Republican Senators will win in states that Obama carries?
There are a handful of targeted Republican Senators who already know they will have to run well ahead of the GOP’s presidential ticket in order to keep their job. Among them, Smith in Oregon and Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) have the biggest hill to climb as Obama will carry their states easily. Smith is in much bigger jeopardy than Collins, as Democrats have been unsuccessful in denting her profile as a GOP moderate. Obama will likely also win Minnesota, where Sen. Norm Coleman (R) is up for re-election. And in New Hampshire, the presidential race is pretty much a tossup, which could be the saving grace for Sen. John Sununu (R), who until recently has trailed by wide margins in most polls.
16) Will ’08 be another year of the woman?
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s addition to the Republican presidential ticket, on the heels of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D-N.Y.) primary campaign, further increased talk of the importance of female voters in 2008. There is little doubt that independent-leaning women will be a key voting bloc. But also noteworthy is the number of female candidates who have a good shot at winning Congressional races. Among them are Darcy Burner in Washington, Betsy Markey in Colorado, Suzanne Kosmas in Florida, Debbie Halvorson in Illinois and Mary Jo Kilroy in Ohio. Markey and Kilroy would replace women if they win. In the Senate, the ranks of women could grow by just one, if former New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) wins and Landrieu is re-elected. In North Carolina state Sen. Kay Hagan (D) faces Dole, but a win by Hagan wouldn’t produce a net gain.
17) How many second-chance candidates will win?
There are quite a few rematches on tap this November. Former GOP Reps. Melissa Hart (Pa.), Jeb Bradley (N.H.), Anne Northup (Ky.) and Mike Sodrel (Ind.) are all taking on the Democrats who ousted them from office in 2006. Of the group, Bradley probably has the best shot at regaining his old seat. This will be Sodrel’s fourth matchup against Rep. Baron Hill (Ind.) so voters in that district are very familiar with both men.
There are also several candidates who came close to winning in 2006 and are running again. Burner, taking on Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Wash.), Larry Kissell (D), taking on Rep. Robin Hayes (R-N.C.), and Dan Seals (D), taking on Kirk in Illinois, all stand a good shot at winning this cycle in their second try. Kissell and Seals got very minimal attention from national Democrats in 2006, and now party leaders are willing to spend liberally to help them. In Ohio, Kilroy is running for the second time, but she won’t face retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce (R). Also in the Buckeye State Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) faces a rematch with Democrat Victoria Wulsin, although the Republican is still favored to win.
Schumer Advocates for Many on Panel
Nov. 16, 12 a.m.
As Senate Majority Leader, Lyndon Johnson once said of the Joint Economic Committee, “It’s as useless as tits on a bull.” But as that panel’s chairman during the 110th Congress, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) seized the opportunity to elevate the traditionally low-profile post to the forefront of shaping policy. Read Full Article
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