Twenty Questions, So Many Possible Answers
Roll Call Staff
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Expect Democrats to spend whatever it takes to ensure they pick up Virginia’s 11th district, an expensive open seat in the Washington, D.C., media market. The contest between free-spending Sandy Treadwell (R) and Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), a fundraising powerhouse, could also be in the running for the most-expensive race title.
12) Will Democrats see continued success in the South?
After Democrats picked up two House seats in the Deep South in special elections this spring, GOP alarm bells were sounded.
Still, strategists chalked up the losses to a mix of poor candidates and low turnout, which is always smaller in special contests. Now, GOP insiders argue that presidential turnout in districts with similar demographics to Mississippi’s 1st and Louisiana’s 6th will keep Democrats from seeing similar success in November. But Democrats argue that they have recruited conservative candidates who fit the districts and states where they are running and therefore voters won’t mind splitting their tickets.
The answer to this question lies in open House seats in Alabama, Kentucky and Louisiana as well as Senate contests in North Carolina and Mississippi. House Democrats are already showing their commitment to playing in the region by lending significant resources to the races in Alabama and Kentucky. Likewise, Senate Democrats have been spending heavily in both North Carolina and Mississippi.
In the previous presidential election, the Senate battleground was heavily skewed toward open seats in the South. When all was said and done, a Republican won the White House and the GOP swept all of the races in the South. We’ll know on Election Day whether the Democrats’ strategy has paid off this time.
13) How many state delegations will see the balance of power shift after the elections?
Democrats hold a majority of House seats in 27 state delegations while two states are evenly split between the two parties. But with the party poised to make gains across the country, it also stands to increase the number of state delegations it controls.
For example, a pickup of three House seats in Ohio would give Democrats control of 10 of the state’s 18 seats. In North Carolina, a pickup of one seat would move the delegation from tied to the Democratic column. Likewise in Arizona, a pickup of one seat would put Democrats ahead, with five of eight seats.
In Michigan, if Democrats were to win the two competitive races — and the decision by McCain to pull out of the state increases their chances — it would give the party control of eight of the state’s 15 seats.
And in Louisiana, a net pickup of one seat would shift delegation control to Democrats.
Perhaps the biggest wholesale change could be realized in Florida, where Republicans have dominated the delegation for much of the past two decades. If Democrats were to win all four of the competitive GOP-held seats this cycle and Mahoney is re-elected, they would control 13 of the state’s 25 seats. The last time Democrats held a majority of the state’s House seats was in 1990, when they controlled 10 seats and Republicans held nine.
In New York, it isn’t a matter of which party will control the delegation after Election Day. The question is how many Republicans will be left? Republicans are all but certain to lose two open seats in the Empire State, where Democrats hold 23 of the state’s 29 seats, and two more GOP-held districts are competitive this fall. At the beginning of the decade, Republicans held 12 seats in the state.
14) Will an anti-incumbent mood damage Democrats, too?
Although the national political environment is viewed as poorer for Republicans across the board — largely due to fatigue from eight years of the Bush administration — the fact remains that voters are angry at Washington, and there are more Democrats on Capitol Hill than there are Republicans. Still, the House and Senate battleground is skewed against Republicans because Democrats recruited more (and better) candidates and because they have a sizable financial advantage.
Schumer Advocates for Many on Panel
Nov. 16, 12 a.m.
As Senate Majority Leader, Lyndon Johnson once said of the Joint Economic Committee, “It’s as useless as tits on a bull.” But as that panel’s chairman during the 110th Congress, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) seized the opportunity to elevate the traditionally low-profile post to the forefront of shaping policy. Read Full Article
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