Twenty Questions, So Many Possible Answers
Roll Call Staff
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The big increase in Democratic registration and turnout was a major storyline during the presidential primaries earlier this year, but on Election Day we will see where those changes make the biggest difference. Three states worth watching are Nevada, North Carolina and Florida. In Nevada, Rep. Jon Porter’s (R) district has seen rapid population growth and the Republican-leaning seat is definitely trending Democratic. In North Carolina, Sen. Elizabeth Dole’s (R) re- election will likely be decided by the influx of new residents in the state. And in Florida, Rep. Ric Keller’s (R) Orlando-based district has experienced a large uptick in Democratic voter registration.
9) Will Rep. Christopher Shays (Conn.) survive as the only New England Republican in the House?
The ranks of moderate Northeastern Republicans were decimated in the 2006 elections and Shays was the last man standing at the beginning of the 110th Congress. Democrats are targeting Shays once again, this time with Greenwich Town Committeeman Jim Himes. They argue that Himes is able to run as more of an outsider than Westport Selectwoman Diane Farrell, their nominee against Shays in the previous two cycles.
The Congressman has proved to be a tough target and has carved out a niche on Capitol Hill as a moderate maverick, a profile similar to that of McCain. But the Arizona Senator will not carry Shays’ district and voters there are very accustomed to ticket-splitting. If Democrats can’t beat Shays this year they won’t be able to until his district is redrawn in the next round of redistricting.
10) Will House Republicans take a bath in Florida?
In 2006, New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio served as major battlegrounds in the Democrats’ march to win a majority of House seats, with each state playing host to four to six truly competitive races. While those states are again serving as top battlegrounds, Florida is a new addition to the list. House Democrats have tried unsuccessfully in recent cycles to make major inroads there but in 2008 they finally see their opening.
In the previous cycle, they picked up two Florida seats, finally knocking off Rep. Clay Shaw (R) and capitalizing on the woes of disgraced ex-Rep. Mark Foley (R) to win his seat when his name remained on the ballot even after he had resigned. This year the Sunshine State has five competitive races, and all but one of them involve a Republican incumbent. Keller and Rep. Tom Feeney are in the greatest peril, but the Diaz-Balart brothers, Lincoln and Mario, are also in the fights of their political lives. Freshman Rep. Tim Mahoney (D) is being targeted for defeat in Foley’s former district, and Democrats must hold that seat in order to maximize their gains in the state. Recent polling has shown Obama pulling ahead in Florida.
11) What will be the most expensive House and Senate races in the country?
None of the most populous (and expensive) states are hosting Senate races this cycle so it’s a little more difficult to come up with an obvious choice. New Hampshire and North Carolina are the two most expensive states that are hosting blockbuster Senate contests. Also in the running to be the most expensive are Minnesota, where Sen. Norm Coleman (R) is squaring off against comedian Al Franken (D), and Colorado, where outside groups have already poured somewhere near $15 million into the open-seat contest.
In the House, open-seat races in Ohio, Illinois and New Jersey are already proving to be among the most expensive. Rep. Mark Kirk (Ill.) has been the GOP’s fundraising star this cycle and the Chicago media market is costly, meaning his rematch with Democrat Dan Seals will likely be among the most expensive in the country. Shays is also in for another expensive fight.
Schumer Advocates for Many on Panel
Nov. 16, 12 a.m.
As Senate Majority Leader, Lyndon Johnson once said of the Joint Economic Committee, “It’s as useless as tits on a bull.” But as that panel’s chairman during the 110th Congress, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) seized the opportunity to elevate the traditionally low-profile post to the forefront of shaping policy. Read Full Article
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