Twenty Questions, So Many Possible Answers
Roll Call Staff
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There are likely to be more incumbents who face a similar fate before Election Day, and the NRCC may be better served to spend money to try to hold on to open seats than on some Members’ re-elections.
4) Will Senate Democrats get to 60 seats?
Once viewed as a long shot, there is increasing steam behind a scenario whereby Democrats reach the 60-seat threshold needed to end a filibuster.
Democrats currently have 51 seats in the chamber. According to Roll Call’s race ratings, Democrats stand poised to pick up three seats for sure, with open-seat races in Virginia and New Mexico appearing to be lost causes for the GOP and Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) trailing badly in polls as he endures a public corruption trial.
If the Democratic party wins those, it would need to net six more seats to hit 60, and Roll Call currently has six GOP-held Senate races rated as tossups. Democrats would need to run the board on those seats or win an additional race that is viewed as not as competitive — such as knocking off Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).
Many observers believe the chase to 60 will hinge on the outcome of races in three states: Minnesota, North Carolina and Mississippi. Incredibly, only one Democrat, Sen. Mary Landrieu (La.), is vulnerable. Democrats didn’t lose a single Senate seat in 2006 and could pull off that trick again this time.
5) What will be the net gain of House seats for Democrats?
House Democrats picked up 30 seats on their way to winning the majority in 2006, and not a single Democratic incumbent lost. The prospect of no incumbent losing looks unlikely in 2008, but it’s still possible that Democrats could see a gain of 20 to 30 seats.
Massive back-to-back gains for one party would be unprecedented in the age of modern campaigning. Republicans saw big House gains in consecutive cycles in the early 1950s, but it was only after Democrats made a 75-seat gain in 1948.
Current projections put Democratic gains somewhere in the range of 15 to 25 seats. And over the next few weeks both parties will play the expectations game — with Democrats trying to lower net-gain predictions and Republicans seeking to increase them.
At this point, anything less than a 15-seat loss would have to be considered a pretty good outcome for Republicans. The size of Democratic gains is likely to hinge on just how many Republican incumbents they can pick off. The sizable money difference between the parties means that Republicans are hamstrung and will only be able to afford TV in the final two weeks of the campaign. That will be after Democrats have been on the air in most districts for weeks.
6) How badly will the country’s economic woes hurt Republicans?
This is the $64,000 question these days, and we could know the answer soon. With economic recovery legislation now passed, it will take a little time for polling to reflect voters’ attitudes on the measure and the overall state of economy. In recent weeks, several polls have shown Obama taking the lead in several key battleground states and surveys have also shown Republicans slipping at the Congressional level. Is this the turning point in the elections? Maybe. Did the October surprise already happen? We just don’t know yet.
7) Which state delegation will see the biggest wholesale change?
New Mexico is probably the winner in this category because all three of the state’s House Members will be new and one of two current Members will be the newest Senator. But with a large number of competitive races on tap, big changes may materialize in New York, Florida and Ohio as well.
8) Where will population and demographic shifts be felt most?
Schumer Advocates for Many on Panel
Nov. 16, 12 a.m.
As Senate Majority Leader, Lyndon Johnson once said of the Joint Economic Committee, “It’s as useless as tits on a bull.” But as that panel’s chairman during the 110th Congress, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) seized the opportunity to elevate the traditionally low-profile post to the forefront of shaping policy. Read Full Article
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