Twenty Questions, So Many Possible Answers
Roll Call Staff
Related Content
Twenty questions about the 2008 elections that will decide the size of the Democratic majorities in the next Congress:
1) Where will the top of the ticket help downballot the most?
While Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Barack Obama (D-Ill.) will no doubt help candidates running downballot in their respective home states, their coattails elsewhere in the country might prove more helpful.
With the first major-party African- American presidential nominee leading their ticket, Democrats are banking on an increase in black turnout to help boost their candidates, although this is a double-edged sword (see next question). An increase in black turnout would probably be felt most in the South, an area where Democrats are competing more this cycle than they have in some time.
But not all races where increased black voter turnout could help the party are in the South. In Ohio’s 1st district, Rep. Steve Chabot (R) won a narrow victory in the previous cycle and is being targeted again. The suburban Cincinnati district is 27 percent black and increased turnout in that community could doom Chabot.
Republicans are counting on McCain to help in districts where there is a sizable military population and also areas that are largely populated by older Reagan Democrats.
McCain could help Rep. Phil English (R), who is being targeted in Pennsylvania, and Rep. Thelma Drake (R-Va.), who faces another tough race in a battleground district with a heavy military population.
2) Where will the top of the ticket most hurt downballot?
One of the things Republicans are banking on in this election is that the top of the ticket will have long coattails in open House seats in conservative districts. Their argument is that voters in presidential years are more apt to vote straight ticket and that in open seats in places like Alabama, Kentucky and Louisiana, McCain’s double-digit margins will simply prove too large for Democratic candidates downballot to surmount.
Will Reps. Don Cazayoux (D-La.) and Travis Childers (D-Miss.), who were elected in special elections this spring, be stung by the fact that they are on the ballot with the presidential contenders? Both men represent districts with a large black population, but these are also areas where white voters do not have favorable views of Obama and McCain will easily carry each district.
The presidential race in general is problematic for Sen. Gordon Smith (R-Ore.), who ran a TV ad linking himself to Obama, because the Democrat will carry the state.
As long as McCain keeps the race close, he probably doesn’t do too much major damage to Republicans downballot, as party strategists have repeatedly asserted they got the best possible candidate in McCain and his maverick image. But if in the next month Obama is able to gain a sizable lead, then a pending landslide would have disastrous results for Republicans downballot.
3) How many Republican incumbents will be hung out to dry by the National Republican Congressional Committee?
The massive financial advantage that House Democrats enjoy over their GOP counterparts has been well-documented. But in the next few weeks the reality of that disparity is likely to come crashing home for some Republican Members.
Gone are the days when the NRCC could spend millions to help damaged or badly underperforming incumbents limp across the finish line. NRCC Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.) has repeatedly told Members that they can’t count on the committee to save them in the end.
Still, the NRCC’s core mission remains incumbent retention, and the majority of its limited resources will likely be spent on helping re-elect Republicans. But already there are signs of some incumbents reaching the point of being deemed unsalvageable. Polls have shown Reps. Don Young (R-Alaska) and Marilyn Musgrave (R-Colo.) trailing their opponents by wide margins, and it’s hard to see the NRCC spending money to help their campaigns if those numbers don’t change drastically.
Chun: Cyber Attacks Demand Strong Public-Private Response
Nov. 6, 12:35 p.m.
The federal government is increasingly taking a leadership role in improving the nation’s cybersecurity. But, with a threat that is quickly growing and more sophisticated each day, it’s clear that the government — for all of its good intentions — cannot win this battle without a robust commitment from technology companies. Read Full Article
Roll Call Video Channels
