- Republican Wins Money Race in New York Special
- Congressional Hits and Misses: Week of April 20, 2015
- Pelosi Reacts to Death of Al Qaida Hostages
- Pelosi Calls Emerging Trade Deal a 'Pothole'
- Freshman's Campaign Issue Gets D.C. Attention
It appears that Republicans have all but given up on taking this seat back. Their early recruit, Navy officer Sean Sullivan (R), only had a skeletal amount in his bank account at the end of July: $155,000. Courtney, on the other hand, had a cool $1.4 million in cash on hand.
In the next month, dont expect to hear much from this race. Once a competitive district, it now appears safe for Courtney for the foreseeable future.
Republicans think Shays has found a winning recipe for holding onto his seat. Despite facing top Democratic challengers cycle after cycle, Shays has held on to his suburban district by more than a few thousand votes.
Democrats recruited Greenwich Town Committeeman Jim Himes early on to challenge Shays. Although he does not have the regional following that 2004 and 2006 nominee Diane Farrell had, Democrats hope Himes candidate profile might play better in the district. While Farrell emphasized her time as a Westport selectwoman, Himes background in the finance sector and his work on urban housing issues could play better with voters in an election cycle that has so far has benefited outsider candidates.
To win this cycle with Himes, Democrats will have to figure out a way to unlock Bridgeport the largest city in the district to increase urban voter turnout. Democrats hope having a black presidential nominee on the top of the ticket will help Himes in this area, but its hard to be optimistic about a city whose lower-than- expected turnout has cost the party this seat time and time again.
Republicans keep touting state Sen. David Cappiello as a promising candidate for the seat, but its nonetheless been difficult for him to get much traction in the district.
Cappiello got his fundraising in gear, bringing in big names to raise money for him in the district and having a cool $711,000 in the bank at the end of July. Even stories tying Cappiello to a corrupt garbage company arguably the thing most hampering his candidacy have disappeared from the local newspapers.
Cappiellos politically moderate profile makes him exactly the kind of Republican candidate who could win the district: He supports abortion rights, boasts a fiscally conservative record in the state Senate and, according to his first television ads, even has a bipartisan marriage. But former Rep. Nancy Johnson (R) had a similar record and 12 terms in the House behind her and her race with Murphy in the previous cycle ultimately wasnt even close.
Watch Cappiello try to spend his money on television advertisements in the next few weeks with the hope of increasing his name identification with voters. But he likely will be unable to match the millions of dollars that Murphy can put into the race and onto the airwaves. Whats more, this district may have become too Democratic in recent cycles for any Republican to win or hold on to.
Democrats could not have found a better candidate to challenge Collins this cycle, but Rep. Tom Allen (D) nonetheless continues to trail her in the polls, often by double digits. While Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) dominates his GOP counterpart Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) in the polls in the state, Allen cant seem to get much traction at all.
The consensus among both local and national Democrats was that Allens standing in the polls would improve once he went up on television. But since he hit the airwaves in early September, there has only been the slightest movement in the race.
It may just be that the Collins brand is very strong perhaps unstoppable in the state. While some of her Senate counterparts fight for their electoral lives in what should be safe GOP states across the country, Collins is on target to win re-election by a healthy margin in a state that should be a better bet for Democrats.
Former Common Cause President Chellie Pingree (D) proved she deserved the frontrunner status in this race all along when she resoundingly topped a crowded field to win the June primary. Since that win, Pingrees campaign has kept its head to the ground and out of the headlines.
Republicans have nominated Iraq War veteran Charlie Summers for a second time in this district. Summers, who also won a contested June primary, made his first go at the seat in 2004.
Its likely this race will stay under the radar until Election Day, mostly because the Democratic-leaning district will likely elect Pingree. While Summers is a promising candidate who will likely be buoyed by Sen. Susan Collins (R) expected statewide win, its unlikely that he can find the traction or the funds to give Pingree a run for her money by November.
Its almost a wonder what Kerry is saving that $7.5 million war chest for these days. He easily defeated his token Democratic primary opposition a mostly self-funded anti-war candidate whom Kerry debated just once.
Republican hopes were deflated when their chosen contender, former 5th district candidate and hay farmer Jim Ogonowski, failed to collect enough signatures to get on the ballot. Instead, the GOP nominated security adviser Jeff Beatty to take on the former Democratic White House nominee.
Its hard to imagine what Kerry could do in the next month to lose the election, especially with opposition that only boasts token support from the national party.
Only four of the states 10 House Members and all 10 are Democrats have challengers this fall. Of the four, Olvers opponent, Navy veteran Nate Bech (R), is running the most aggressive campaign. But he still doesnt have a prayer.
Republicans have been saying for months that the polls, which often showed former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) up by double digits, would tighten by the fall. Entering into the final stretch before Election Day, the polls have closed significantly in this rematch between the two Granite State titans.
However, most political observers in the state would agree that Shaheen still has the edge, and the most recent polling has shown her a few points ahead of Sununu. Insiders say its still the former governors race to lose.
Nonetheless, Sununu has plenty of money to spend in these last few weeks. While the Senator ran a frugal campaign throughout 2007 and early 2008, Shaheen was already spending money on television ads. In short, hes got more money to spend on television this fall than she does.
This race will likely continue to tighten as voters hit the polls. If GOP presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) continues to perform well in the state and polls have shown him in a competitive race then Sununu might just pull off a second win against Shaheen. Still, most analysts believe the recent Democratic trends in the state give Shaheen the advantage.
One of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country, Shea-Porters re-election might be more difficult than her first race. Public polls have shown her trailing the man she ousted two years ago, former Rep. Jeb Bradley (R).
But Shea-Porter has more than a few things going for her in the GOP-leaning district: Bradley, whom she already defeated one time, emerged from a late and divisive primary and has the low approval rating to prove it. And this cycle, Shea-Porter appears to be welcoming the national partys much-needed resources to help her campaign.
Shea-Porters biggest problem, according to local analysts, will be holding on to her conservative-leaning seat with a competitive presidential race on the ballot. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) consistently edges Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) in polls in the 1st district, which is known to be the more conservative of the states two seats. Then again, Shea-Porter lagged behind Bradley for months in the 2006 polls before she surprised the political establishment with her upset win.
More recently, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has made it clear that it is willing to spend the cash to keep the seat, dropping more than a half a million dollars in expenditures in recent weeks. The committee has already run one negative ad critical of Bradleys record in Washington, D.C. and it probably wont be the last spot from the DCCC this cycle tying the former Congressman to President Bush.
Expect a very negative general election battle between Hodes, whom Republicans have tried to brand as a Washington, D.C., liberal, and radio host Jennifer Horn (R). The late four-way GOP primary was already a bloody competition of who could be the most negative toward Hodes. And as a result, his approval rating suffered in public polling.
Nonetheless, Democrats arent concerned about Hodes re-election and do not expect to put much national money into the race unless things change significantly. But at least they would have the money to support him if the race became more competitive. The cash-strapped National Republican Congressional Committee might not have the means to aid Horn, whose campaign fundraising was anemic in the primary.
Whats more, Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) is polling well in the 2nd district, further aiding Hodes re-election campaign. Although he may not be the safest freshman Democrat of the cycle, Hodes will likely keep his seat for the next Congress.
Reed can look forward to a low-key couple of weeks before Election Day. He already defeated his opponent, Bob Tingle (R), by a hefty margin in 2002.
A target for a primary challenge in 2006, Langevin will be re-elected easily this year. His only challenge is from a token Republican candidate, Mark Zaccaria, who previously ran for a handful of local committees and zoning boards.
It doesnt get any easier than this for a freshman in Congress. Welch faces wait for it himself for re-election. Well, not exactly. But he managed to pick up the GOP nomination in September when a majority of Republicans wrote in his name on the primary ballot.
That means that this November, its Welch (D) vs. Welch (R) on the ballot. Our money is on the former to win re-election.