House Overview: One Year Out, Parties Prep for the Big Dance

Related Content

Election Preview

• House Overview: One Year Out: Parties Prep for the Big Dance
• Top 10 Most Vulnerable: Almost All Are Democratic Freshmen
• Senate Picture Clouded by Primaries, Uncertainties
• Filing Deadlines and Primary Dates by State
• Roll Call Casualty List: Who's Leaving Congress in 2010
• The Big Picture: Color-Coded Ratings for all 435 House Districts

Regional Breakdowns

• New England: Connecticut Senate Showdown Is Hottest Ticket in Town
• Mid-Atlantic: Republicans Hope to End the Bleeding Next Year
• South: GOP Tries to Till New Soil in Once-Fertile Region
• Midwest: Ohio, Illinois Open-Seat Senate Races Get Top Billing
• Plains: Home to Full Range of Political Activity
• Southwest: GOP Looking to Recapture House Seats It Lost
• Mountain: Markey, Minnick Among Most Vulnerable Frosh
• West: Veterans in Both Parties Find Themselves Targeted

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After making substantial gains in the House in the past two election cycles, Democrats are in a defensive crouch as they prepare to defend their majority in the 2010 midterm elections, the first nationwide ballot box test of the Obama administration.

The governing party almost always loses seats in midterm elections, when the voter turnout is lower and the bulk of the energy and enthusiasm is with the opposition party. With 257 House seats, Democrats are nearing the maximum number of seats they could conceivably control under the current Congressional maps. Surveys show the 2010 elections could be unfriendly to incumbents.

A silver lining for House Democrats is that their big majority — 39 seats more than a 218-seat majority — probably gives them enough of a cushion to survive even a moderately unfavorable election year. Party leaders say they are reminding their Members about the historical trends in midterm elections and counseling them to be ready for determined Republican opposition.

“We have been working with our Members from Day One to be combat-ready,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) said. “No one’s complacent and everyone has been preparing.”

The McCain Democrats

The prime targets for Republicans include many of the 49 districts that elected or re-elected a Democrat in 2008, even as they backed Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) for president. GOP officials expect these districts will be even less friendly to Democrats in 2010, and so they’ve worked on securing serious opponents in as many districts as they can.

Many of these “McCain Democrats” are enrolled in the DCCC’s “Frontline” program, launched two cycles ago to help defend vulnerable incumbents. In this cycle, the program includes 42 Members from politically competitive districts to which party leaders are steering additional financial and logistical assistance. As October began, these Members had an average of $646,000 in their campaign accounts; 32 of the 42 Frontline Democrats had banked at least half a million dollars.

A major focus of GOP campaign officials will be battleground states such as Ohio, where Democrats control 10 of 18 House seats — four more than they held just four years ago. Republicans are promising serious challenges to Democratic Reps. Steve Driehaus, Mary Jo Kilroy and John Boccieri, who were first elected in 2008, and Rep. Zack Space, who is in his second term.

Former Rep. Steve Chabot (R), who is taking on Driehaus, and former state Sen. Steve Stivers (R), who is taking on Kilroy, are seeking rematches after losing in 2008.

Kilroy’s district is one of 11 House races that Roll Call currently rates as a tossup. The Democrats are defending seats in nine of those contests.

Democrats are also defending 20 districts rated as Leans Democratic, which means the party has a slight advantage in races that seem highly competitive at the moment. Ten GOP-held districts are rated as Leans Republican.

GOP strategists are attempting to expand the playing field by targeting veteran Democrats who haven’t been seriously challenged in many years. This subset includes Reps. Vic Snyder (Ark.), Ike Skelton (Mo.), Bart Gordon (Tenn.) and John Tanner (Tenn.).

Those four districts voted decisively for McCain, but the Republicans didn’t put up a serious fight in 2008 against any of those incumbents. Roll Call rates those districts as Likely Democratic, which means the incumbents are neither in serious danger nor completely safe.

“This is a much different approach,” said Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who heads up recruitment efforts for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

McCarthy said the GOP has “60 high-tier candidates” in Democratic-held districts and is well ahead of the pace the party set in candidate recruitment in 1994, the last year the GOP won control of the House from Democrats.

“Traveling the country, you see a greater excitement or momentum on our side than we’ve seen in the last couple of elections,” McCarthy said.

It remains to be seen, though, whether the Republicans will have the campaign funds to wage top-flight campaigns in dozens of districts. The NRCC raised $27.2 million in the first nine months of 2009, or $10 million less than they raised over a comparable period in 2007. DCCC fundraising is down $8.5 million, from $52.9 million over the first nine months of 2007 to $44.4 million over the first nine months of 2009.