Senate Picture Clouded by Primaries, Uncertainties

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• Senate Picture Clouded by Primaries, Uncertainties
• Filing Deadlines and Primary Dates by State
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• The Big Picture: Color-Coded Ratings for all 435 House Districts

Regional Breakdowns

• New England: Connecticut Senate Showdown Is Hottest Ticket in Town
• Mid-Atlantic: Republicans Hope to End the Bleeding Next Year
• South: GOP Tries to Till New Soil in Once-Fertile Region
• Midwest: Ohio, Illinois Open-Seat Senate Races Get Top Billing
• Plains: Home to Full Range of Political Activity
• Southwest: GOP Looking to Recapture House Seats It Lost
• Mountain: Markey, Minnick Among Most Vulnerable Frosh
• West: Veterans in Both Parties Find Themselves Targeted

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A year out from the 2010 midterm elections, the Senate battlefield is anything but easy to read. The landscape features a dozen close contests, around nine serious primary battles and the possibility that a few incumbents might not even make it to the general election.

It’s enough to make a political prognosticator pine for the simpler days of handicapping Senate races.

Perhaps, say, November 2007. Back then the story line was pretty simple.

Democrats were on the march with pickup opportunities in seven races while Republicans could only point to Louisiana as their lone serious pickup opportunity. And with the exception of competitive primaries on both sides of the aisle in New Mexico, there was little doubt as to who would be on the ballot in those Senate contests come November 2008.

Fast-forward two years and Republicans now are finding good opportunities in heavily Democratic territory — like Illinois and Connecticut.

Still, a year before the midterm elections, both sides remain confident about their ability to pick up seats.

Uncharted Waters

The uncertainty surrounding next year’s political environment is probably the biggest reason that the Senate playing field is more cloudy than it was at this point in the previous cycle. A new president, an unstable economy and the introduction of several of the biggest policy initiatives in recent history make it hard to predict exactly how the electorate will be feeling or behave in 12 months.

“The political environment was much more defined in 2007,” GOP pollster Glen Bolger said. “There’s a lot more uncertainty about the direction the political environment is headed. I think if there were more clarity on that, you’d see the Senate races shake out a bit more.”

In some of the more high-profile primaries, there are ideological battles being waged to determine which direction the country should be moving in.

“You’re seeing on both sides a struggle for identity,” Democratic pollster Dave Beattie said. “And you’re seeing it more in Senate races than gubernatorial races because Senate races are much more about a national partisan ideology whereas governors’ races, there’s always a significant local angle. ... I think you’re seeing on both sides a struggle between the more ideological pure members of the party and the more moderate members of the parties ... for who’s going to control the seat.”

Democrats are seeing that battle take place in Pennsylvania, where party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter is being challenged in the primary by Rep. Joe Sestak, who is positioning himself as the true Democrat in the race.

Republicans, meanwhile, are watching Florida Gov. Charlie Crist — who has been endorsed by the National Republican Senatorial Committee — take fire from the right in his battle with former state Speaker Marco Rubio, who is gaining support from prominent national conservatives. In Kentucky, anti-tax activist Rand Paul (R) is trying to run to the ideological right of Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R), the establishment choice in the contest.

In some unsettled primaries, it’s hard to tell at this point who the establishment candidate will be.

Kentucky Democrats are facing a nasty primary that pits two prominent statewide officials against each other. The Democratic primary in Ohio is now likely to be a less dramatic affair since Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher appears to be pulling well ahead of Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner as the establishment frontrunner. Brunner’s dismal fundraising has also led to questions about whether she can remain viable in the race.

Republicans, meanwhile, have primary headaches of their own in states that are considered key pickup opportunities, including Colorado, Connecticut and Nevada.

Obama Vs. Bush

Republicans argue that the increased interest they’ve gotten from candidates is just one positive benefit they’ve reaped from having Democrats control both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. And while the GOP plans to use President Barack Obama and his agenda in starring roles in campaign ads next fall, the Democrats are still hoping to reap some benefit from residual unhappiness with President George W. Bush.

“We have an embarrassment of riches here in terms of good candidates stepping forward to run,” NRSC Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) said last week. “It’s an indicator that people sense an opportunity and the public fears what they see coming out of Washington.”