Presidential Ratings Change: More States Shift Toward Clinton
Florida and North Carolina are no longer Tossup states

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s lead over Republican rival Donald Trump in national polls has varied from a little to a lot over the course of the campaign. But the Democratic nominee's advantage in the Electoral College has been consistent, and it continues to grow with two weeks before Election Day.

According to The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call ratings, Clinton has had more than the 270 electoral votes necessary to win since before the general election officially began.

2 Weeks To Go: Senate Majority Control Still on the Line

Elections Editor Nathan L. Gonzales looks at the final two weeks before Election Day 2016 as Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton widens her path to victory with two shifting race ratings. And find out how Republican Donald Trump’s campaign is effecting the GOP’s desire to maintain control of the Senate and House....
Ratings Change: 5 House Races Shift Toward Democrats
But Democrats are still waiting for wave required to win majority

The good news for Republicans is that the bottom hasn’t fallen out from underneath their down-ballot candidates. The bad news is that there are still nearly three weeks left before Election Day, and 24 hours in each day for Donald Trump to torpedo the party’s chances of holding the House.

District-level polling after the release of the 2005 “Access Hollywood” video and the second debate between Trump and Hillary Clinton showed some vulnerability for Republicans, particularly in suburban districts. But we didn’t see a widespread cratering of GOP candidates in the competitive districts or evidence that the number of competitive seats is increasing dramatically.

Ratings Change: 2 More States Solid for Clinton
Virginia and Colorado look out of reach for Trump

Supporters of Donald Trump might take solace in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, which showed him trailing Hillary Clinton by 4 points. But Trump’s path to victory in the Electoral College is an increasingly narrow one.

At the beginning of the election cycle, any GOP presidential nominee likely needed to win Ohio, Florida, Colorado, and Virginia to get more than 270 electoral votes. 

Ratings Change: Two More Senate Races Move to Tossup
Missouri, Indiana are two of six states that will decide Senate control

With three weeks to go before Election Day, the fight for control of the Senate is coming down to six states hosting very close contests.

New Hampshire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania have been tossup races for months and are now joined by Missouri and Indiana. Republican Sen. Richard M. Burr’s re-election race in North Carolina is rated as Tilts Republican for now, but may end up in the same category.

Opinion: It’s Time for Newspapers to Stop Endorsing Candidates
Taking sides only decreases public trust

Just when editorial boards are coming off the sidelines to endorse in the presidential race, it’s time to do just the opposite.

After 34 years of not endorsing a presidential candidate, USA Today published “Trump is ‘unfit for the presidency’” on Sept. 30. It’s the first time the paper has taken stand in a presidential election. Foreign Policy magazine hadn’t backed a candidate in nearly 50 years, but the editorial board recently endorsed Hillary Clinton. The Chicago Tribune editorial board chose a different path by supporting Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson.

4 Weeks To Go: Top Senate Challengers and Vulnerable House Incumbents

After a controversial weekend for the Trump campaign, Roll Call Elections Editor Nathan L. Gonzales says the effects of the presidential race on down-ballot campaigns is yet to be determined. He talks with politics reporters Alex Roarty and Simone Pathé on the top Senate challenger at this point and the Read more...
Ep. 25: How Republicans Can Lose the Senate
The Week Ahead

Get an insider’s take on the cliffhanger battles in the six states that will determine control of the Senate with Roll Call’s Nathan Gonzales and representatives from two of the largest Republican and Democratic Super PACs. Ian Prior from Senate Leadership Fund and Shripal Shah from Senate Majority PAC take us behind-the-scenes in the Super PAC world and discuss their ad strategy.

Presidential Rating Change: Midwest State Moves to Tossup
Trump holds steady in Iowa against Clinton

The good news for Donald Trump is that he is doing well in a state President Barack Obama won twice. The bad news is that winning Iowa isn’t enough to get him to the White House.

Trump has held a consistent lead over Hillary Clinton in the Hawkeye State (45-41 percent in the latest RealClearPolitics average), putting him in line to scoop up its six electoral votes. It’s a remarkable turnaround considering Iowa was one of the closest states in the country in 2000 and 2004, but Obama won it easily in 2008 (54-44 percent) and 2012 (52-46 percent).

Ratings Changes in 5 Senate Races
North Carolina and Missouri replace Ohio and Florida on competitive map

Two of the Republicans’ most vulnerable Senate seats are looking safer by the day, but the GOP’s majority is still in significant doubt with evolving Democratic takeover targets in North Carolina and Missouri.

Democrats outside of Ohio have all but ceded a second term to GOP Sen. Rob Portman. We’re changing The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rating from Leans Republican to Republican Favored

Ratings Changes in 12 Competitive House Races
6 races shift toward Democrats but 6 improve for Republicans

With five weeks to go before Election Day, Democrats are still waiting for Donald Trump to create the nationwide swell that would be necessary to put the Republicans’ House majority into play. House races are often late to engage but, thus far, the developments have been a mixed bag for Democrats, keeping sizable gains out of reach.

The lack of vulnerable Democrats — and the resiliency of many Republican incumbents in the face of an unpopular presidential nominee — could amount to a historic election in the House, but not in the way one might think. The cycle could produce the fewest number of House seats to flip party control in 60 years.

Why Is Pelosi Losing Sleep Over Bustos' Re-Election Bid?
Just one of many desperate fundraising pleas from a safe member

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi still believes Democrats have a chance to take back the majority, but she’s somehow simultaneously worried about her colleague from Illinois losing re-election in a safe race. 

“I’m sorry to email you so late, but I’m not sleeping,” Pelosi wrote in a Sept. 19 mass email. “Cheri Bustos has a PUBLIC fundraising deadline in just 2 weeks — and right now she’s WAY behind her ‘minimum’ fundraising goal.”

Six Weeks To Go: Roll Call’s Election Forecast

Elections Editor Nathan L. Gonzales discusses where the national presidential election stands as Hillary Clinton's advantage over Donald Trump has nearly faded in some polls. And find out how the Democrats' hope of overtaking the Senate looks with six weeks to go before Nov. 8, as well as the current status of House races....
Rating Change: Democrats Turn Up Heat in New Jersey House Race
Defeating GOP's Scott Garrett has become one of the party's top goals

Rep. Scott Garrett doesn’t represent one of the most Democratic districts, but Democrats have made the New Jersey Republican one of their top takeover targets this cycle. It’s starting to feel like even if Democrats fall short of the majority on Election Night, defeating Garrett would help them sleep a little easier.

Mitt Romney and John McCain carried New Jersey’s 5th District in the most recent presidential elections, so there are better opportunities for Democrats in more Democratic districts.

Rating Change: California House Seat Not So Safe for Democrats
Millennial Republican making his move in retiring Rep. Lois Capps’ open seat

Any time there is a discussion about Republicans taking over a House seat in California, I’m skeptical. That’s a reasonable reaction considering Republicans haven’t taken over a Democratic seat in the Golden State since Bill Clinton was president. But that streak could end this year.

Even though Donald Trump is complicating GOP efforts in House and Senate races across the country, Republicans have two takeover opportunities in California.

Rating Change: McCain More Vulnerable in Arizona
Donald Trump isn’t helping longtime senator’s bid for sixth term

Sen. John McCain didn’t have a lot of trouble winning his recent primary, but the Arizona Republican doesn’t have any time to relax with a competitive general election on the horizon.

“If Donald Trump is at the top of the ticket, here in Arizona, with over 30 percent of the vote being the Hispanic vote, no doubt that this may be the race of my life,” the 2008 GOP presidential nominee told supporters at a May fundraiser.

Fall Forecast: The Top 10 Senate Race Challengers

Elections Editor Nathan L. Gonzales and Senior Political Reporter Alex Roarty discuss the most formidable Senate challengers as Election Day draws ever nearer. Can the Democrats take back the chamber as they hope?...
Rating Change in Ohio Senate Race
Rob Portman is bucking the national trend working against the GOP

With Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, there hasn’t been a lot of good news for Republicans, but one of their senators is providing a glimmer of hope.

It was no surprise that Ohio started the cycle as a focal point as a perennial presidential swing state with a competitive Senate race. A close re-election contest for GOP Sen. Rob Portman looked inevitable, particularly after Democrats recruited former Gov. Ted Strickland to run. And Trump’s subsequent victory in the presidential primaries and overall weakness as a candidate threatened to drag down GOP incumbents across the country.

Rating Change: New Hampshire House Race Swings Toward Democrats
Democrats now have the advantage in 7 GOP-held House seats

New Hampshire’s 1st District has a history of flipping party control every two years, and this year doesn’t appear to be any different.

Regardless of who emerges from the Republican primary on Sept. 13 between incumbent Rep. Frank C. Guinta and businessman Rich Ashooh, the nominee will have a difficult fight in the general election.

Rating Change: Toomey to Tossup
Donald Trump appears to be dragging down GOP senator in Pennsylvania

The Keystone State could be the key race in deciding which party controls the Senate next year.