Rating Change: New Hampshire House Race Swings Toward Democrats
Democrats now have the advantage in 7 GOP-held House seats

New Hampshire’s 1st District has a history of flipping party control every two years, and this year doesn’t appear to be any different.

Regardless of who emerges from the Republican primary on Sept. 13 between incumbent Rep. Frank C. Guinta and businessman Rich Ashooh, the nominee will have a difficult fight in the general election.

Rating Change: Toomey to Tossup
Donald Trump appears to be dragging down GOP senator in Pennsylvania

The Keystone State could be the key race in deciding which party controls the Senate next year.

Ratings Change: 7 States Shift Toward Clinton in Electoral College
Democrat projected to win 332 electoral votes — she needs 270 to win

Donald Trump appears to be drowning in the wake of the conventions.

The Second Biggest Surprise of the Election Season
GOP senators have won primaries with 86 percent of the vote on average

Donald Trump winning the Republican presidential nomination is the biggest surprise of the election season, but GOP senators’ success in primaries has to be a close second.

Republicans Target Governorship in Bernie Sanders’ Vermont
GOP Lt. Gov. Phil Scott starts race in surprising strong position

Sen. Bernie Sanders believes his political revolution will elect progressive candidates around the country, but Republicans have their sights set on electing a governor in his home state.

Even though Vermont is viewed as a liberal New England state, it wasn’t that long ago that it had a Republican governor. Jim Douglas was elected in 2002 (succeeding Democratic Gov. Howard Dean) and re-elected three times to two-year terms.

The Most Important Question to Ask Trump Defectors
What will #NeverTrump voters do in down-ballot races?

“Quitting the Republican Party” is the easiest way to make the news these days, but the stories about Donald Trump defectors don’t go far enough to understand the potential impact on the November elections.

Conservative columnist George Will revealed in late June that he had changed his voter registration to “unaffiliated.”

Ratings Changes in Two Top Senate Races
Mixed news for two of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents

While Donald Trump’s presidential campaign appears to be spinning wildly out of control most days and is potentially cratering from lack of support from GOP voters, Republican senators are trying to maintain some independence in order to weather the storm and keep the chamber in GOP hands.

With the conventions in the rearview mirror, the electoral landscape is settling in search of a new baseline for the general election sprint. Fresh polling conducted after the conventions shows that Trump is hemorrhaging Republican voters and thus getting crushed in the typical presidential swing states.

Huelskamp’s Loss Could Embolden the Freedom Caucus
Group could back challengers against GOP incumbents in future primaries

Kansas Rep. Tim Huelskamp’s primary loss Tuesday night was widely viewed as the Republican establishment sending a message to the tea party.  

But even though the House Freedom Caucus  is losing a member next year, the Kansas result may have sparked more fighting in future GOP primaries.  

What I Learned Outside the Convention Bubble
Pennsylvania Democrats haven't closed the deal in down-ballot races

WYNNEWOOD, Pa. — Stephanie Peditto is a reminder that it’s good for reporters to venture outside the bubble because normal people don’t always follow the campaigns closely.  

After nearly two consecutive weeks of covering party conventions, it was time to take a break from the overwhelming world of politicians, delegates and fellow members of the media. On Thursday morning, I drove west a few miles outside of Philadelphia to nearby Wynnewood.  

Plouffe Warns Democrats Against Bed-Wetting — Again
In 2010, Democrats lost 63 House seats after Obama manager’s advice

PHILADELPHIA — I thought Hillary Clinton had an advantage in the presidential race until President Barack Obama’s campaign manager said there was nothing to worry about.  

As the Democratic National Convention kicked off in Philadelphia, there was significant unrest both within and outside the official activities.  

Ep. 16: First Lady, Sanders Make Case for Clinton Amid Rebellious Bernie Supporters
The Week Ahead: Convention Special

Catch up on the tumultuous first day of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia with CQ Roll Call's Managing Editor Adriel Bettelheim and Elections Editor Nathan Gonzales, who tells us what to look for Tuesday.  

Show Notes:

Clinton Campaign Readying National Olympic Ad Blitz
High seven-figure network and cable advertising campaign

Hillary Clinton is planning a massive television ad buy during the Olympics, on the heels of accepting the Democratic nomination for president next week in Philadelphia.  

Hillary for America has reserved time for a high seven-figure national network and cable advertising campaign during the Summer Olympics, which begin August 5, according to a senior campaign official.  

NRCC Bracing for Lonely Defense of House Majority
With all eyes on the presidential race, House Republicans believe their majority is safe.

CLEVELAND, Ohio - Severe thunderstorms pounding downtown Cleveland were an ominous beginning to the Republican National Convention on Monday morning, but House Republicans in the city for the festivities don’t see a wave in the forecast that would jeopardize their majority in the November elections.  

Republicans are enjoying their largest House majority since 1928, but it feels more tenuous because of the potential that presumptive GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump could create a backlash against the entire party.  

Ratings Change: Indiana Senate Race Now Tilts Democratic
Ex-Sen. Evan Bayh’s late entry shakes up the open seat race

Former Sen. Evan Bayh will run for the Senate after all , buoying Democrats’ chances of winning the open seat in Indiana and the Senate majority.  

The news, first reported by CNN’s Tom LoBianco , is surprising considering Bayh, who didn’t seek re-election in 2010, had shown no interest in running, despite Democratic recruitment efforts earlier in the cycle. The Democratic nominee, former Rep. Baron Hill, stepped aside on Monday to allow the state party to replace him on the ballot.   

Why 2016 Is No 2006 for the GOP
Republicans decline to attack Democrats on "Culture of Corruption"

Republicans are obsessed with one high-profile Democrat who isn’t going to be indicted — while giving a collective shrug after two Democratic House members have been indicted within the past 12 months.  

On Friday, Democratic Rep. Corrine Brown of Florida was indicted on conspiracy and fraud charges related to an unregistered charity. She announced she is temporarily stepping down as the ranking member of the House Veterans’ Affairs Committee.   

Rating Change: Utah No Longer Safe for Donald Trump
Presumptive GOP nominee has fundamental disconnect with Mormon voters

President Barack Obama fell just short of 25 percent of the vote in Utah in the 2012 presidential election, but Donald Trump can’t take the Beehive State for granted this November.  

A June 2-8 poll by SurveyUSA for The Salt Lake Tribune showed Trump and Clinton tied at 35 percent, with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson at 13 percent. It’s wise to avoid drastic conclusions based on a single poll (and an automated one at that), but there are other reasons for Trump to be concerned.  

Republicans Need Gary Johnson to Save the Senate
Libertarian candidate needs to poll at least 15 percent to qualify for first debate

On Sept. 26, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will face off in Dayton, Ohio, for what's anticipated to be the most-watched presidential debate in history. Republicans need Gary Johnson to be on the stage.  

Normally, both parties try to marginalize third-party candidates and keep them from getting publicity in order to prevent them from siphoning off supporters. But some Republicans just can’t vote for Trump (or Clinton) for president, yet vulnerable GOP Members need those voters to turn out for races down the ballot.  

California Democrat Moves to More Vulnerable Rating
Father's guilty plea doesn't help Ami Bera's re-election chances

Democratic Rep. Ami Bera of California topped Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones, 53-47 percent, in a preview of the general election since they were the only two candidates on the June 7 primary ballot.  

Bera won close races in 2012 and 2014 in the 7th District, and was regarded as one of the few vulnerable incumbent Democrats heading into the 2016 election cycle.  

Rating Change: Utah GOP Congresswoman Less Safe for Re-Election
Personal and national factors make Mia Love's race worth watching

A recent public poll showing Republican Rep. Mia Love trailing Democratic challenger Doug Owens by 6 points doesn’t smell quite right. But the congresswoman could still be in for a competitive race, even though Utah’s 4th District isn’t a typical swing seat.  

The June 2-8 automated poll conducted by SurveyUSA for The Salt Lake Tribune and the Hinckley Institute showed Owens with a 51-45 percent advantage in a hypothetical general election matchup. Operatives on both sides of the aisle are skeptical of the polling numbers, but Democrats are determined to defeat Love and some Republicans concede that the race is worth watching.  

Millennials Rage Against the Machine (and Lose)
2016 has not been a good year for young Democratic hopefuls

Alex Law came to our candidate interview with three interns, and I think one of them was wearing shorts.  

Some of my colleagues chastised me for scheduling a meeting with a 24-year-old kid challenging Rep. Donald Norcross in a Democratic primary in New Jersey’s 1st District, considering Norcross comes from one of the Mid-Atlantic’s most powerful political families.